Don't Count McCain Out in Florida
Florida’s closed Republican primary was supposed to be John McCain’s undoing.
Tomorrow’s vote marks the first time balloting in a G.O.P. contest is restricted only to registered Republicans, leaving out the independents who boosted Mr. McCain’s performance in New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina. At the mercy of a party base that despises him for his positions on immigration, campaign finance reform and a dozen other apostasies, the thinking goes, McCain faces the prospect of defeat at the hands of Mitt Romney.
Actually, Florida may not be quite the uphill fight for McCain that conventional wisdom suggests. It’s true that polls have McCain and Romney running neck and neck and it’s certainly possible that Romney, buoyed by a strong debate performance last week and a spike in voter interest in the domestic economy, could emerge victorious.
But McCain is better positioned to engineer a victory than many realize.
For one thing, the focus on the Republicans-only nature of the Florida primary has ignored a potentially mitigating statistic: Independents account for a much smaller share of the Florida electorate than they do in states with open primaries.
Consider New Hampshire, where support from independents paved the way for McCain triumphs in 2000 and 2008. Independents account for 44 percent of the New Hampshire electorate, while Republicans make up only 30 percent. Many of those independents lean decidedly toward the G.O.P. but have no incentive to declare themselves Republicans, since they are free as independents to vote in the G.O.P. primary anyway. Since these moderate, independent-minded de facto Republicans are not technically enrolled in the party, New Hampshire’s registered Republicans become a more conservative and ideologically rigid bunch.
But in Florida, the closed primary provides a powerful incentive for those same G.O.P.-leaning moderates to enroll in the party. As a result, only 22 percent of the state’s electorate is independent—half the New Hampshire total—while 38 percent are registered Republicans. On the whole, this means that a larger share of registered Republicans in Florida are open to supporting a maverick like McCain than in New Hampshire. In other words, by forcing voters to declare a party or surrender their right to vote in primaries, Florida may have encouraged more moderates to join the party.
And, in fact, the Florida G.O.P. has a history of supporting candidates who are not always rigid adherents to conservative orthodoxy. Charlie Crist, the first-term governor who endorsed McCain on Saturday night, has embraced aggressive civil rights and voting rights enforcement, environmental protection, and a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers (ridiculed as “amnesty” by Romney and others). And as the state’s attorney general in 2005, some on the right attacked him for not using his office to keep Terri Schiavo on life support. To secure the Republican nomination in 2006, Crist handily defeated an opponent who ran on conservative social themes.
Connie Mack, a two-term U.S. Senator who retired after the 2000 election, and Jeb Bush, the state’s governor from 1999 until 2007, also made successful appeals to moderates and non-traditional Republican voters in their political careers (even if Bush governed more conservatively).
It would be inaccurate to label Crist, Mack, or Bush as moderates (Bush especially), since they all hew to conservative orthodoxy on most issues. But McCain falls into this category as well. He has split with his party on some high profile occasions but for the most part has racked up a record of exemplary conservatism over his 25 years in Congress. To be sure, he remains anathema to a significant chunk of the Florida G.O.P.—hence Romney’s status as co-leader in the polls—but candidates like McCain have won Florida Republican primaries many times before.
Moreover, there are other signs that McCain may be on the verge of a win, however narrow, in Florida. Late last week he picked up the backing of Mel Martinez, his Senate colleague and an influential figure among the state’s Cuban-American voters. And the last-minute backing of Crist, who has racked up high approval ratings since becoming governor, sends a powerful message to Republicans who have been considering McCain but who have had reservations.
Romney, who has finally found his natural campaigning voice, remains a formidable contender. If he wins on Tuesday, Republicans will face the real prospect of a split verdict on February 5 and a nomination battle that could drag on into the early spring.
But, in part because of the media’s intense focus on the closed primary issue, McCain has the opportunity to deliver a fatal blow to his rivals. With a win, the media will celebrate McCain’s newfound appeal to the party base, the final test of his burgeoning front-runnerhood. From there, he would be well-positioned to score a sweeping national victory on Feb. 5, keyed by Republicans who consider him acceptable enough and who are anxious to unite behind someone—anyone.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.0
- 42.0
- Obama +4.0
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 33.0
- +22.7
- McCain
- 52.7
- 34.1
- +18.6
This article is "right on". McCain has always stood firm on bedrock conservative principals and isn't always towing the party line. This is just what voters are looking for this year. Someone with a mind of their own. Romney has a real flip flop record if examined closely, Gulianni has been MIA and Huckabee hasn't been able to get the necessary finances. McCain would unite the GOP and draw a host of disenchanted DEMs this fall for a big victory.
Everyone respects McCain. McCain could get elected president. Romney could not, but would lose big time. The dems would gain big numbers in congress. Huckabee can continue on past Florida and win a few states. Too bad he does not have more money. Romney will continue on with all his money. If Romney wins Florida, it will be a dog fight going forward.
You just never know... Mitt Romney will win in Florida!!!!
I beg to differ. Not everyone respects McCain.
In order for a Republican to Defeat a Democrat at the election booth, the two need to have diverging and different views. If they do not, people go for the real thing (A democrat) vs. someone pretending to be the real thing. If McCain wins the primary election the Dems are sure to win as he is just a democrat-light versus Hillary or Obama that are the real deal.
Mitt Romney needs to win so that the Republicans have a fighting chance to retain the White House in order to prevent a total Liberal/Socialist takeover of the United States Government.
In order for a Republican to Defeat a Democrat at the election booth, the two need to have diverging and different views. If they do not, people go for the real thing (A democrat) vs. someone pretending to be the real thing. If McCain wins the primary election the Dems are sure to win as he is just a democrat-light versus Hillary or Obama that are the real deal.
Mitt Romney needs to win so that the Republicans have a fighting chance to retain the White House in order to prevent a total Liberal/Socialist takeover of the United States Government.
One fact this article did not address was the percentage of moderates that constitute the Republican electorate. Most estimates put that figure at least 40%. McCain leads this group in most polls by a 43% to 27% margin over Romney with the conservative vote split between Romney, Huck and McCain at a 37% to 28% to 27%. All McCain has to do is continue to strip moderates away from Giuliani and he will win a close victory.
Republican Party
I respectfully disagree with an earlier post to this board in which the writer stated "Mitt Romney needs to win so that the Republicans have a fighting chance to retain the White House..." - My friend, you have either a).not been paying attention to the national polls, or b). You are a DEMOCRAT. I say this because the national polls show (and for quite some time, I might add) McCain consistently beating both Hillary and Barack Hussein Obama in a head-to-head election. Those same polls show both Democrat front-runners TRASHING Romney by double-digits. Here it is...Plain & Simple...The last thing we need as president is another "sunny-faced, rich FRAT BOY". Romney is a disingenuous, serial "flip-flopper" who will get torn to shreds by the Clintonistas OR the Obama campaign (which now, by the way, has the FULL support of the KENNEDY clan, who are nobody's idea of political lightweights). So if you really, really don't want a Liberal/Socialist government in this country for the next God-only-knows how many years, ya'all better stop drinking the Limbaugh/Hannity/Levin Ultra-Conservative Kool-Aid regarding McCain and get with the program. John McCain is the only REPUBLICAN who can beat these democrat turkeys.
It's clear that some in the Republican party, cannot really see themselves clearly from the outside.
Mitt Romney is just the kind of axe-wipe that Republicans love, but would fail miserably in the general election.
If you care about electability, McCain is your best bet.
Fact is, Hillary has some high negatives...you put up another high negative person against her, you will lose though. The sheer number of women who are only going to vote for a woman, cannot be ignored.
Better, to have someone with lower negatives like McCain. Then Hillaries advantage is somewhat mollified by her disadvantages (high negatives).
I'm amazed that some people can still convince themselves that Romney has a snowball's chance in the general election. Most (if not all) the polling done suggests that he would lose badly to either Clinton or Obama. McCain is the only candidate who consisently beats or comes within single digits of either Democratic candidate. So, if you truly want a Dem in the White House (socialized medicine, retreat from our enemies, entitlements, higher taxes) then feel free to vote for Romney. If you want a moderate conservative who will cut pork-barrel spending, keep us on offense in the War on Terror, respects unborn life and wants energy independence for our country, then you should vote for John McCain.
Just a sidenote: McCain has an American Conservative Union rating of 82.3, while Fred Thompson has a rating of 86. That conservative enough for you? And Mitt calls him a liberal. Look in the mirror, flip-flopper.
To Antoine
Six weeks ago we werre informed by the polls that the only person in the Republican party who could beat a Democrat was Rudy Guiliani. Polls change just like peoples minds.
McCain is Dishonest.
Let’s not forget how he has betrayed us with his liberal agenda and legislation.
* Voted against Tax Cuts multiple times.
* Voted for Increasing Taxes over 50 times (most recent McCain/Leiberman which is going to drastically increase prices at the pump).
* Filed brief against Pro-Life Advocates in Wisconsin.
* Fought against a federal marriage amendment supporting the Institution of Traditional Marriage.
* Wrote the Bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants.
* Voted to give our Social Security money to illegal immigrants.
* President of the NRA called McCain the “Worst 2nd Amendment” candidate.
* Joined with Hillary to demand terrorists be given a full American trial.
* Described Christian Leaders as “Agents of Intolerance” in his 2000 Campaign.
* Blocked Republicans in their attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges.
* Supports radical global warming legislation voting with EVERY Democrat.
* Founding member of the Notorious “Keating Five” which was an ethical scandal costing US tax payers $160 Billion.
Need we go on???
A vote for McCain if a vote for "Hillary light". We don't need anymore Clintonesque politics.
WHO IS THE DEMOCRATS FAVORITE REPUBLICAN? CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/01/romney_democrats_favo...
-he wrote the bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants (co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy)
-he voted to give your social security money to illegal immigrants
-he voted against the Bush tax cuts multiple times (he has since flip-flopped and has campaigned as a lifelong tax-cutter)
-he routinely engages in Democratic class warfare against big companies in America
-as recently as December 2007 he admitted “he does not know the economy very well” and needed to get better at it
-he wrote the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that was declared to be an unconstitutional infringement of the 1st Amendment (co-sponsored by ultra-liberal Democrat Russ Feingold)
-he was called the “worst 2nd amendment candidate” by the president of the NRA
-wrote a bill (co-sponsored by his buddy Lieberman) imposing a massive tax on energy which, according to the Heritage Foundation, would drastically raise the price of gasoline and put many US companies out of business
-supports radical global warming legislation which involved him voting with every Democrat
-he joined forces with Democrats (Gang of 14) to block the Senate Republican’s attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges
-he joined liberals to fight against a federal marriage amendment supporting the institution of traditional marriage
-campaigning in 2000, he famously described Christian leaders as “agents of intolerance”
-he filed an amicus brief against pro-life advocates in Wisconsin
-he met with leading Democrats in 2004 to discuss the possibility of being John Kerry’s Vice-President
-with most of these positions, unfortunately, McCain hasn’t flip-flopped and vows to fight for these liberal causes as president
John McCain is the man. He is the only Republican who can win in Nov and keep the Congress from going massively Democratic. He appeals to independents who will decide this election. He is a conservative but doesn't tow the party line all the time. The American people do not want another George bush. Look at the polls ( 30% Bush approval rating). Romney is trying to make himself out to be another Bush. Romney will get slaughtered by Hillary ( 12.5 %) and Obama (17%). The public does not want a rigid ultra conservative president this time. They are looking for something different. Look at the polls. Ideological purity is not going to win in Nov.
Mouskateer wrote:
Just a sidenote: McCain has an American Conservative Union rating of 82.3, while Fred Thompson has a rating of 86. That conservative enough for you?
NO...NO 82 is not enough....try giving me someone over say 90%
I beg to differ. It would be Romney who would have a chance to beat a Democrat this year, despite the polls....which I believe are wrong in predicting McCain being the strongest vs. the Democrats......What we don't need is another Bob Dole, an old warhorse 'whose
turn has come because we owe it to him.'......What we need is new ideas-- REPUBLICAN NEW IDEAS--
because this is what it will take to beat an Obama, or even a Hillary.........
McCain is a career politician, in fact his friends in Congress are the Democrats. The only reason he is a Republican is because years ago, that is the only way someone could get elected to
the House or the Senate if running from Arizona.............Who needs a Democrat running as a Republican?????......McCain is the alltime flip flopper, even though the media does not portray him as such....He has changed his professed views on almost every major position. And he has
fought on the floor of the Senate, not with Democrats, but with fellow Republicans......
It Romney who must win the nomination. Otherwise the party is doomed.....I will stay home or I may vote Democrat for the first time since 1976 if McCain is the nominee....as I would like to
see his face giving a concession speech in November...and know that I had some part in it.
The national polls are wrong. They will be proven wrong. Anyone who votes for McCain is either
a Democrat or a duped Republican.......Those military retirees who are voting for McCain on one issue--IRAQ....and the fact that McCain is a decorated POW war hero...are deluding themselves....
McCain will not be good for the country. He is a stubborn, tirade laden, spoiled old man....
who kind of reminds me of LBJ!....who will do anything to win....who will twist arms behind the scenes to get his way......Get away McCain!.....Go back to Arizona.....I appreciate and respect you for your service in Vietnam but now don't destroy our country!
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