A Good Night for Clinton, But Probably Not Enough
Hillary Clinton had a very good night on Tuesday, the first time in a while that can be said.
But for her to emerge as her party’s nominee, it will take Democrats deciding that their standard-bearer should be the candidate who won fewer pledged delegates, fewer popular votes and fewer states in the primary and caucus season.
The March 4 results weren’t nearly decisive enough for her to make headway in the race for delegates, where she still lags about 100 behind Obama. And she still trails Obama by hundreds of thousands of votes in the cumulative national popular vote.
In theory, this isn’t a huge problem: There are still 11 Democratic primaries and caucuses that have yet to be held, and more than 600 pledged delegates yet to be handed out, and a few hundred uncommitted superdelegates as well. With her momentum from Tuesday night, Clinton could—theoretically—tear through the remaining contests and catch Obama in the pledged delegate and popular vote counts. Suddenly, then, those outstanding superdelegates will be under pressure to side with Clinton, and not Obama.
But look closer.
There are a few states left that Clinton can and should win, starting with Pennsylvania (by far the largest state yet to vote) next month. West Virginia on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20 also look promising, and Puerto Rico (the last jurisdiction to hold a nominating contest, on June 7) is a possibility as well.
But there are just as many states left that Obama can and should win, starting with Wyoming, where caucuses will be held this Saturday, and Mississippi next Tuesday. Indiana (where a recent poll put him 15 points ahead) and North Carolina (a 10-point Obama lead a few weeks ago) on May 6 also look good, as do Oregon (May 20) and Montana and South Dakota (June 3). Puerto Rico isn’t a lost cause, either.
In other words, Clinton and Obama are poised to trade wins for the rest of the primary season, meaning that Obama’s edge in delegates and overall popular votes won’t erode between now and June. If anything, it will expand, since the combined populations of the states he is favored to win exceed the combined populations of the Hillary-leaning states that have yet to vote.
What’s worse for Hillary, the party’s delegate distribution rules will severely limit the value of her remaining wins. Even if she wins Pennsylvania by a solid margin (say, high single digits), she and Obama will probably split the state’s 158 pledged delegates almost evenly. It would take a thumping landslide for Hillary to win a substantial delegate majority from Pennsylvania (or any other state), but even in defeat this primary season, Obama has mostly had no trouble notching well over 40 percent of the vote—good for an almost even split of any state’s delegate pool.
Clinton, meanwhile, has often struggled in small red states, where she’s been lucky to break 30 percent of the vote. Even though the convention delegations from these states are small, Obama has won clear majorities among them, thanks to his dominating primary and caucus wins. That means that similar Obama triumphs in the upcoming South Dakota and Montana primaries, for instance, could by themselves offset a Clinton victory in Pennsylvania.
Clinton earned the right to press on with her candidacy on Tuesday, probably all the way through the primary process. But on June 8, the morning after the Puerto Rico caucuses, she will almost certainly wake up to face significant deficits in pledged delegates and overall popular votes. The silver lining: Obama will almost certainly be short of the magic number of delegates needed to win a first ballot nomination. A few hundred superdelegates will still be on the sidelines. And the status of Michigan and Florida may not be resolved.
At that point, Hillary will have two paths to victory, and each will be a long shot. The first would require those outstanding superdelegates to side with her. But it’s doubtful that enough superdelegates would play along with this. On the whole, they simply don’t feel strongly enough about Clinton and her electability to withstand the intraparty firestorm that would ensue.
Her other hope would be for a compromise on Michigan and Florida. As now constituted, those delegations cannot be seated at the convention, given the absurd nature of the nominating contests that were held in both of them. But the party will be under enormous pressure to offer them some kind of representation. New contests are possible, maybe even a primary (as opposed to cheaper, party-run caucuses) in Florida.
But even if this happens, it probably won’t affect the overall balance of power. A strong primary win in Florida for Hillary could shave a few dozen delegates off Obama’s edge, but he’d be positioned to run much better in Michigan, especially if caucuses were held there.
Don’t forget: Jesse Jackson, with a much narrower coalition than Obama, won Michigan’s caucuses by 18 points in 1988, and even with no opposition on the ballot in the state’s outlaw primary, Hillary couldn't crack 60 percent in Michigan in January (with “uncommitted” near 40 percent). At best, Hillary might win the state narrowly, with no measurable advantage in the delegate count.
That means that what Clinton is really hoping for is some kind of dramatic stumble on Obama’s part at some point in the next few months—maybe a new Rezko development, maybe a gaffe that calls his electability into question or maybe some new revelation that might emerge from increased press scrutiny. If Obama begins to look like a weak general election candidate, she could have better luck with those superdelegates.
What became clear on Tuesday is that Obama is not going to knock Hillary out of the race with a bang. But all he has to do is outlast her, and—even with this setback—he remains ideally positioned to do just that.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.4
- 41.6
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 32.7
- +23.0
- McCain
- 52.4
- 34.7
- +17.7
I agree with everything you had to say. Go OBAMA!
You forget Hillary's biggest ally: the apparently ineradicable racism of white America.
Now people have taken to copying my handle?
Haha.
I will note what they say about imitation and flattery.
LOL
The key word is "probably," but this night is still fantastic for Clinton. It proves that there is still a large part of the democratic party that wants her to be the nominee. Clinton, and her supporters, are not going to roll over. The bigger story is this: even with the "momentum," even with all of the endorsements, even with vastly more money, Obama couldn't seal the deal. Over the next few days I will delight in reading the Cult of Obama trying to explain this away. Fight on, Hillary!
You SAID: You forget Hillary's biggest ally: the apparently ineradicable racism of white America.
I SAY: Ha! Blacks are voting for Obama at an 85-percent clip, yet these race-baiting pigs have the audacity to accuse whites of racist voting practices? Unreal.
More double standards.
What a joke.
STOP OBAMA NOW.
whatever happened to OBJECTIVE journalism?
I think the scenario of an Obama stumble is certainly a possibility. Hillary is a known quantity and that's not the case with Obama.
We know most everything about the Clinton's. I think? What's left? The closet door is almost off the hinges and all the laundry, the good and bad, has been viewed. Some of Obama's laundry is beginning to have a bad odor. For months, the laundry has been smelling clean and fresh, but in the last week some of Obama's laundry ain't smellin' so clean and fresh.
It should be kept in mind that Clinton had a huge lead of 20+ points in both states not that long ago. Obama closed that lead in Texas significantly. Ohio could have been better for him though.
seriously. this should be under editorial.
it's a column. they run columns here all the time. editorials are for the opinions of the editor not everything has to be an objective news story.
So this is the time for Dems to stand up now for Hillary Clinton. She has done now what she said she would do, by winning the states she said she would. Dems can not afford to send the glass jaw of Mr Obama to face the Republicans, that would be like shooting fish in a barrel. Hope for
Change comes from faith in the person you put it in, regardless of the bitter comments I'm sure this will recieve, most real Dems (not those pretending to be) know that HRC will fight for the things she talks about in her speeches, rather than the 8 years we've had of Bush. Unite now and send HRC to the White House.
Not only do I think blacks are being racist by voting for a black man, they are also not racist because as you know, Obama is half white. So all my points, I realize now, are incorrect.
I'd apologize, but I don't know how.
By the way, the X is meant to be ironic. Get it? Malcolm X. I'm hilarious and racist.
I don't understand what Clinton has done that proves she is better than Obama?
In reality, they both haven't done much. They got to office and thought of running for president from day one.
It's all b.s. They are both "just talking". She makes it sound like he's giving speeches, while she is making policy. That's not true at all. Both are on the campaign trail. They aren't doing anything but trying to get votes.
I love how she includes her white house experience as experience. Way to go! You where in the white house while your husband was getting blowjobs. Jeez that's who we want protecting our borders from the terrorists. Someone would couldn't even stop her husband from bombing his sperm all over the place.
It's all crap. If it was based on real experience, than Ted Kennedy should be president. But it's not.
Clinton will be more of the same. Do you Clinton people really think he's going to not be able to do the job as well as her? You know that's crap. You know it. Deep down inside.
All I know is that McCain should be the one Democrats attack, but I fear, by the time we pick a winner, we will really just be picking who gets to lose in the national election.
Hope V asked:I don't understand what Clinton has done that proves she is better than Obama?
Hi, just thought I'd list a few things she's been a part of.
1 After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Hillary worked with her colleagues to secure the funds New York needed to recover and rebuild. She fought to provide compensation to the families of the victims, grants for hard-hit small businesses, and health care for front line workers at Ground Zero.
2 In the White House, Hillary led efforts to make adoption easier, to expand early learning and child care, to increase funding for breast cancer research, and to help veterans suffering from Gulf War syndrome who had too often been ignored in the past
3 She was instrumental in designing and championing the State Children's Health Insurance Program, which has provided millions of children with health insurance
It doesn't matter, it does not matter!! She won and will stay on longer, that means the Dems tearing each other up. It's great!! Thank you Texas and Ohio!
Let's wait to see how many Republicans voted for Hillary to provide a win for John McCain in November. Hillary accomplished less than she promised and needed to do last night but she did keep herself alive. For me, she is starting to win me over. Watching her last night I realized I was naive to think that there was hope for any change in a country where winning at any cost is so highly valued.
Republicans did vote for her in Texas; they got their marching orders from Limbaugh and they delivered for him as usual. Now we have to wait a month and a half for Pennsylvania to vote. In that time the mud is going to sling so fast and furious; thanks Hillary. Plus the media is starting to take their noses out of Obama's a$$hole, he will no longer receive a free ride.
"Hope is a good breakfast, but a poor supper."
Too Little & Too Late for the Clinton's.
Most of the "Democratic Establishment" wanted the Clinton's out, as you saw Chris Dodd, Ted Kennedy & John Kerry all backing the "Kid" Obama. A Fight for the control of the National Party with the Billarys.
In reality, last night you saw Dem voters waking up and seeing that Barack Hussein Obama was just a "State Senator" a very, very short time ago in Illinois. Obama was doing Park dedications, Baby Seat Laws and Street namings just two years ago......
Dem voters sensing now that more "News Bombs" are on the way to Obama. The free ride will be over for Obama by much of the media as Billary is now exposing to all.
Obama is starting to be looked now by many as a "Inexperienced Motivational Speaker" who reads off the Tele prompter. Wet behind the ears....As Billary is doing this now she is exposing to all how the GOP will do the same.
(I suggested this all months ago along with Rudy G. never getting to first base for the GOP Presidential Race)
In anycase, Billary Clinton continues their campaign for two reasons.........
1 - Bribe/Steal "Super Delegates" from Obama in due time
2 - Wait for Obama to "Self Distruct," having "Super Delegates" walking or running away from "Mr. Motivational Speaker" as stories come out.
This could be bad news fro GOP as all media will have the Dem Primary as top headline as McCain slips into page 5 of the newspapers while this all continues.
Jim Kelly - NY Conservative Campaigns
BTW…Dems have trouble with either one…
Down the road media and voters will focus on Billarys failed promises to New Yorkers….
Here is Hillary Clintons record…..
Clinton promised to promote WNY to Corporate America and bring 250,000 new jobs and economic development into Western New York seven years ago.
Instead of promoting WNY to corporate America as promised, Clinton was running across American since that election promoting herself as President….end result, forgetting those in WNY.
By the time Clinton was running for her second term, Western New York LOST another 25,000 Jobs. 35,000 Homes have abandoned by people who have left WNY because they can’t sell them to buyers. (Source NY Times)
Clinton will be a “Lighting Rod” for the GOP Base with stories like this…....
Jim Kelly – NY Conservative Campaigns
Maybe,now she has really found not only her voice but her humanity!
To my impersonator: how old are you? Ten?
Grow up and stop hiding behind other people's handles. It's cowardly.
Eyesaac,
I understand that you're upset because I humiliated you, but this is really not the answer.
Hope V said Ted Kennedy should be president based on experience?? That's an outrage. Senators do not make good presidents, now we're in a situation where there's going to be an ex-senator in the Oval Orifice come next January. What happened to all the good governors of both parties from whom we choose the chief executive? Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Roosevelt, Coolidge, Wilson; despite what you think of them, all governors.
Obama, McCain, Hillary, Kerry, Bradley, Dole, McGovern, Goldwater, blechh. Prima donnas masquerading as hands on politicians. There is a difference between executive and legislative experience.
I can't begin to think of what kind of country we will be if Obama is president! - wake up people - !!!! i'm a staunch democrat- but if obama wins -i will vote for McCain.
OPEN YOUR EYES AND EARS - RESEARCH - -IT'S YOUR COUNTRY! IT'S YOUR FUTURE!!!
Senator Clintons only goal is to get back at the right wing conservatives who axed her and husband. The Democrats do not want to move away from the Clinton era. Yet, it brings so much baggage. Kerry understands this better than any one. When he ran for president, the Clintons did not publicly and confidently support him because they wanted to prepare Hilary for the 2008 election. Perhaps if the Democratic party would of fought for Kerry our country could have take another course. But the established Democrats wanted a rematch with the right wing conservatives, and waited for this moment for eight years.
The truth is that Senator Obama is being used by his own party. They have no intentions on given him the nomination. They want the Clintons to be in office. Remember, many of those established Democrats were groomed by the Clintons so they will not go up against Bill and Hilary.
I think the party did not realize what Obama would do in bringing out large record number of voters, so there plan back-fired. It is politics as usal. We are all being used in this game. The Democratic party should of fought Bush harder in the past eight years, but they became intimidated, waiting on the Clintons to solve there problems. I guarantee you that Hilary will get the nomination.
Senator Obama has done a great job in reviving this country. He brought unity and closed the gap between black and white, and that is a great accomplishment. Hilary prides herself on experience, but Senator Obama served in the Illinois Senate and then moved on to become US Senator. His experience with legislative matters and dealing with a predominantly white constiuent base in Illinois helped him get elected to the US Senate. I was born and raised in NYC and now live here in Chicago, if you think race is in an issue in the great NYC, come live in Chicago, it is worse. He crossed racial boundaries in Chicago, he should be given the opportunity: as a Harvard graduate; as a man who has more than ten years experience in public office; a christian; and an advocate for middle class America. What else are we looking for? Perfection does not exist in public office. We won't get that.
Hilary's techniques are creating division, and allowing old-bigotry attitudes to resurface among the American public. We have to move away from this, our country is falling apart. We need to take a chance on someone, who has proven that people of all ethnic groups can work together.
If you are serious about winning back the white house in 2008, force the democratic party to make a stand, or we will loose the election in 2008.
Note- Nafta does not work; the issue of Universal Health care must be revisited. If we can regulate insurance companies much better, then we do not need Universal Health care.
Research your candidate and become pro-active.
Thanks.
If it comes down to "outlasting" Hillary, all we're going to get is a weakened nominee, an exhausted, alienated electorate, and a republican candidate who's been handed his campaign on a platter by Hillary Clinton.
How can she do this to the party, and to the country?? When we finally have a chance for real progress, and to end some of the fighting that's been going on for 20+ years? If she could see beyond her own ambition she'd recognize that it's time to get out.
She can't win the nomination, and we need to respectfully encourage her to end this before the convention, and get to work helping the democrats win this fall.
http://www.HillaryStepAside.com has a great open letter to Hillary that you can sign. It's a grassroots effort that just launched yesterday and is worth checking out.
NY PEARL -
YOUR NOTE JUST REEKS OF IGNORANCE. YOU REALLY HAVEN'T A CLUE ABOUT ANYTHING DO YOU??? -
A SAD AND PATHETIC AND LAZY AMERICAN POPULATION.....
LIKE I SAID BEFORE - WAKE THE *#$&(@# UP!
NY PEARL -
YOUR NOTE JUST REEKS OF IGNORANCE. YOU REALLY HAVEN'T A CLUE ABOUT ANYTHING DO YOU??? -
A SAD AND PATHETIC AND LAZY AMERICAN POPULATION.....
LIKE I SAID BEFORE - WAKE THE *#$&(@# UP!
Anonymous, you make quite a case there, but I think Pearl has a point.
if obama goes against mccain - he will lose. with hillary at least we have a chance...