Still a Problem Year for G.O.P and McCain
MORE
Wise Guys
With John McCain as their candidate, Republicans are making the best of a bad political situation. But even with his considerable personal appeal and maverick image, there are fresh signs that the country’s fatigue with the G.O.P. label will be too much even for Mr. McCain to overcome this fall.
The latest evidence is a special election last Saturday for a House seat in the Baton Rouge area in which, for the third time in as many months, a normally reliable Republican Congressional district has opted for the Democratic candidate in a special election.
In isolation, all three results could be explained away. In Louisiana’s 6th District, where conservative Democrat Don Cazayoux was elected last weekend by the same voters who handed George W. Bush 59 percent of the vote in 2004, the result could be chalked up to the considerable personal liabilities of the Republican nominee, a polarizing perennial candidate who has run multiple losing campaigns under both party banners since the late 1970s.
Similarly, Democrat Travis Childers, who led the field last month in the preliminary special election to fill Mississippi’s 1st District seat (finishing inches short of the simple majority that would have obviated a runoff), could be said to have benefited mainly from geography: He hails from the heart of the district, while his Republican foe is the mayor of a town that many Mississippians see as practically an extension of Memphis.
And the victory of Democrat Bill Foster in the 14th District of Illinois, where former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s resignation necessitated a March special election, could also be framed as a referendum on the lack of appeal of the G.O.P. nominee, who entered with three losing statewide campaigns under his belt.
But the pattern is hard to ignore. Each of these districts is staunchly Republican, and each voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Bush in ’04. (At 11 points, Mr. Bush’s margin in Illinois’ 14th District was the closest of the bunch.) That the Democrats have now claimed two of them—with a third pending in a runoff in Mississippi—in the same year is powerful evidence that association with the G.O.P. is as toxic to a candidate’s political health now as it was in 2006.
If there is any good news here for Mr. McCain, it is that he’s not running for the House or Senate this year. Because of the nature of the office they are seeking and the lack of media coverage (particularly in House contests), it is much tougher for candidates for these offices to break free of their party labels and to force voters to consider them as individuals. Personality counts for almost nothing in Congressional races, leaving candidates at the mercy of partisan trends and, perhaps, the coattails effect from the top of the ballot.
At the Congressional level, then, the recent special-election results portend disaster for the Republicans this year. Already, the party has been hit with a spate of retirements in marginal House districts, and G.O.P. Senate retirements have Democrats poised to pick up seats in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. And strong recruitment by Democrats and a massive fund-raising advantage have darkened the prospects of numerous G.O.P. House and Senate incumbents. Add to this a powerful Democratic tide, and 2008 could yield Congressional majorities for the Democrats that can withstand several down cycles.
But unlike the average Republican House candidate, Mr. McCain will at least have an opportunity to make most Americans overlook the “R” after his name. Virtually none of the Republicans who vied with Mr. McCain in the primaries were suited for this task, but Mr. McCain, thanks to his enduring reputation for “straight talk,” is.
At a certain point, though, you wonder: How much is too much for him to overcome? These should be heady days for the McCain campaign. Their candidate wrapped up the G.O.P. nomination more easily than anyone could have predicted, and unity within the party has not been as elusive as many forecasted. Meanwhile, the Democrats are locked in a primary that just won’t end. The likely nominee, Barack Obama, has been bloodied, and supporters of the likely loser, Hillary Clinton, are loudly threatening to stay home—or even to vote for Mr. McCain—should Mr. Obama secure the nomination.
And what has this all been worth for Mr. McCain? Not much—and maybe even less. A New York Times/CBS News poll released this Monday has him running 11 points behind Mr. Obama.
Granted, polls are a dime a dozen this year. But even on his best days, Mr. McCain can’t seem to break out of a statistical tie with Mr. Obama—or Mrs. Clinton, for that matter. Just like those House elections, it’s a trend that can’t be ignored.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.1
- 41.3
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 33.0
- +22.7
- McCain
- 52.7
- 34.1
- +18.6
MC-CAIN THE UNELECTABLE NEO-CON CANDIDATE IN THE AMERICAN CULTURAL WAR
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens
Support for the Outsourcing of Jobs and Technology to China
Support for the Illegal and Un-patriotic Sacrifice of American Wealth and Blood for Israel
Demonization and Ridicule of the Christian Conservatives
Slander and Ridicule of Ron Paul, Romney, and Huckabee
Government Supported Sacrificial Killing of Children by Abortion
McCain-Feingold Legislative Suppression of Internet Freedom of Speech
Unethical Political Tactics in Primaries
“Occupy Iraq for 100 Years”, “Bomb Iran”, and “Let’s just keep Afghanistan”
Tax and Spend Opposition to Bush Tax Cuts
No Solution to the Oncoming Recession and Inflation
No Solution for Providing Affordable Health Care
No Solution for the Social Security Crisis
Insignificant Social and Economic Accomplishments in Long Scandalous and Contentious Political Career
Being such a notoriously incompetent, morally depraved and dishonest politician, and such a pretentious Christian and patriot, insanely dishonoring his God and his Constitution, how can he ever be trusted to cherish and honor the American People?
Running Podhoretz Neo-Con McCain as Conservative is a pretentious scam that has fooled many trusting conservative voters; and has condemned him to the Conservative Republican firing squad.
Google: Mearsheimer Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy; Stricherz Why the Democrats are Blue; Wall Street Journal McCain-Feingold; Human Events Ron Paul Interview; Who Would the World Elect.
mr. kornacki, i have read your political analylsis and found it quite interesting. you follow a line which is quite dominant in the major media. i have a different perspective which leads me to a different prediction. in a nutshell, i see the house outcome as dem plus/minus 5 seats and the senare as dem plus/minus 2 seats. at this moment i see mccain as president with 274-8 electoral votes. my assumptions are as follows: 1) there is no recession this year, unemployment remains below 5.5%, and consumer spending remains steady. 2) gas prices moderate their rise and the people make the necessary adjustments while the politicians make their usual proposals and the developing world enters the energy bidding wars on an even larger scale. 3) the iraq war moves steadily and visibly to an american success. there will be no gettysburg or battleship missouri moment but the signs of iraqi stability, political maturity and economic potential will be there over the next six months for most to see. 4) the erosion of white working class support from the obama ticket will continue, while working women who truly and deeply admired hillary will be very difficult win back. 5) the hispanic voter has been curiously ignored in the dem primary, some will see this as disrespect. remember, in this context we are dealing with mcccain. he can not easily be characterized as a racist jingoist. his recotd is clear and his right-wing enemies too visible for this to work. i could go on but you get the idea. if the structural situation plays out as i predict ( the economy and the war ), obama simply does not have the demographic draw beyond his core constituencies ( blacks and educated liberals ) to win the election let alone provide coattails for recently elected congressional candidates in red-leaning districts. a close analysis of the precinct level returns in la. 6, which your article sites, will give you an idea of what i mean.
regards,
michael hogan
s
Realclearpolitics has McCain tied with Obama. Only one poll has Obama leading by 10+. Obama trails in Ohio and Florida. This thing is far from over. Who ever wrote this didn't see the numbers.
"A New York Times/CBS News poll released this Monday has him running 11 points behind Mr. Obama."
The public will not focus seriously and harden their opinions until after Labor Day.
In fact--The only polls worth any salt are tracking polls that use "LIKELY voters"--not "REGISTERED voters".
Anything else is amateurish and may have a hidden agenda (i.e. sway public opinion).
Could it be that the Republican record of the last 7 years: soaring budget deficits and national debt, oil prices rising from $30/barrel to over $120/barrel, gas prices rising from $1.40 to near $4.00/gallon, falling median family incomes, and an endless, expensive, destructive unnecessary war in Iraq; could it be that this record is the reason that the Republican party has a favorable rating of only 27%--the lowest ever recorded by the WSJ poll? Oh, and by the way, John McCain supports every major policy decision that produced this disastrous record.
I think that McCain is in an excellent position to win the election since current polls show him to be ahead in Ohio and Florida and competitive in California. What recent Republican nominee ever started the presidential campaign with these advantages and then lost?
I think that McCain is in an excellent position to win the election since current polls show him to be ahead in Ohio and Florida and competitive in California.
Let's get something straight, McCain has ZERO chance to win California or New York...He is way too socially conservative to even be competitive there, & will lose those 2 states by at least 10%, probably more....He also has no chance in NJ, IL, MA, (and a host of smaller ones as well)....
McCain is nothing but the 3rd. Bush term & he deserves to get destroyed in November.....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/mccains_electoral_coll...
For all those who think that Obama should be the favorite take a look at this link. Obama has almost no chance to win Ohio and Florida and it almost screws him completely. To win without these, he's going to have to sweep all the toss-up states and not lose any states that went blue last election. That includes Mich where they're polling about even and where it will likely be close in November. With Obama against giving the Michigan voters they're say, it looks like McCain has a solid chance of taking the election, regardless of the problems the GOP is facing right now.
Mr. Hogan, i have read your political analylsis and found it quite interesting. You wrote about Mr. Kornacki that he
"follows a line which is quite dominant in the major media." It is obvious that you have not read Newt Gingrich's warning published on Monday about this subject.
Gingrich's article essentially agrees with Mr. Kornacki's and gives the same evidence and grounds provided by the latter. Gingrich begins his article as follows:
"The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana's Sixth Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake up call for Republicans: Either Congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.
The facts are clear and compelling.
Saturday's loss was in a district that President Bush carried by 19 percentage points in 2004 and that the Republicans have held since 1975.
This defeat follows on the loss of Speaker Hastert's seat in Illinois. That seat had been held by a Republican for 76 years with the single exception of the 1974 Watergate election when the Democrats held it for one term. That same seat had been carried by President Bush 55-44% in 2004.
These two special elections validate a national polling pattern that is bad news for Republicans. According to a New York Times/CBS Poll, Americans disapprove of the President's job performance by 63 to 28 (and he has been below 40% job approval since December 2006, the longest such period for any president in the history of polling).
A separate New York Times/CBS Poll shows that a full 81 percent of Americans believe the economy is on the wrong track.
The current generic ballot for Congress according to the NY Times/CBS poll is 50 to 32 in favor of the Democrats. That is an 18-point margin, reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster.
Congressional Republicans Can't Take Comfort in McCain's Poll Numbers
Senator McCain is currently running ahead of the Republican congressional ballot by about 16 percentage points. But there are two reasons that this extraordinary personal achievement should not comfort congressional Republicans.
First, McCain's lead is a sign of the gap between the McCain brand of independence and the GOP brand. No regular Republican would be tying or slightly beating the Democratic candidates in this atmosphere. It is a sign of how much McCain is a non-traditional Republican that he is sustaining his personal popularity despite his party's collapse.
Second, there is a grave danger for the McCain campaign that if the generic ballot stays at only 32 % for the GOP it will ultimately outweigh McCain's personal appeal and drag his candidacy into defeat."
The link for this article is at: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26376#continueA
Gingrich, the media, and I agree on this analysis. What's your take on Gingrich's analysis?
I think the man who wrote this article simply doesn't want to believe what is happening to the Dems. It's fine and all to say that McCain should be up by a big margin right now (and he does lead substantially from time to time in tracking polls) but he's under the radar right now. Obama is getting massive face time and he's unable to make the sale with either Hillary or McCain. The poll that you quote (CBS) is an outlier, too.
"The current generic ballot for Congress according to the NY Times/CBS poll is 50 to 32 in favor of the Democrats. That is an 18-point margin, reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster."
Once again, we're just talking about the CBS poll which is an outlier. What about Rasmussen which shows a much closer generic match-up? Also, what about the fact that Woody Jenkins and Jim Oberweis were both unpopular? I believe Senator McCain will win the White House.
"Let's get something straight, McCain has ZERO chance to win California or New York...He is way too socially conservative to even be competitive there, & will lose those 2 states by at least 10%, probably more....He also has no chance in NJ, IL, MA, (and a host of smaller ones as well)....
McCain is nothing but the 3rd. Bush term & he deserves to get destroyed in November....."
Granted, Senator McCain is not likely to win California or New York. But to suggest that he will lose Florida by at least 10% is simply not rooted in reality. Poll after poll has come out showing Obama to be disliked by Floridians and he couldn't even win the Ohio primary. Pennsylvania and Michigan are on the table, too. And you're totally discounting the undeniable fact that there is racial polarization in this election (even yesterday's supposed big win for Barack Obama saw him losing the white vote 61%-37% in NC and 60%-40% in Indiana) and he's viewed very suspiciously by older voters and Hispanics too.
Even if Senator McCain were a 3rd Bush term, there's at least 40% or 45% of the population that would vote for him regardless. But Senator McCain is his own man and I predict he will win.
I second what Mr. Hogan said.
Go President McCain!!
One Very Simple Question:
What has Senator Obama accomplished that makes him worthy to become President of the United States?
M, you have only one question?
Two years ago My local newspaper ran stories with photos on three consecutive days of Obama on his African Pilgrimage. I asked myself, "Why would the Montgomelry, Alabama Advertiser report on the neophyte junior senator from Illinois?" Well, being the deep thinker I am, it occurred to me that perhaps he was being auditioned for the job of stopping Hag Hillary. About six months later, he announced for the Presidency.
He had been in the U S Senate 2 years.
As the powers would have it Obama, the chosen one, has stopped Clinton, the pretender to the crown. Now Hag's biggest problem is the vast unknown conspiracy from 2009 to 2012. Remember she is up for reelection to the senate in 2012.
In a sense, we should be thanking Obama for the service he has done for the country and the Republican Party, but that would be taking it a little far.
M, you have only one question?
Two years ago My local newspaper ran stories with photos on three consecutive days of Obama on his African Pilgrimage. I asked myself, "Why would the Montgomelry, Alabama Advertiser report on the neophyte junior senator from Illinois?" Well, being the deep thinker I am, it occurred to me that perhaps he was being auditioned for the job of stopping Hag Hillary. About six months later, he announced for the Presidency.
He had been in the U S Senate 2 years.
As the powers would have it Obama, the chosen one, has stopped Clinton, the pretender to the crown. Now Hag's biggest problem is the vast unknown conspiracy from 2009 to 2012. Remember she is up for reelection to the senate in 2012.
In a sense, we should be thanking Obama for the service he has done for the country and the Republican Party, but that would be taking it a little far.
LEIBERMAN NEO-LIBS AND PODHORETZ NEO-CONS DESPERATELY NEED TO ELECT MC-CAIN OR HILLARY
McCain’s ideological support comes from Podhoretz Neo-Cons and Leiberman Neo-Libs, not Reagan Conservatives nor Kennedy Liberals. These supporters have the same Neo-Marxist roots, which go back nearly 60 years, when millions of defeated Marxist immigrants from Nazi German and the Soviet Union were admitted by America, as desperate persecuted refugees; after all of the European nations wisely refused to take them.
By the McCarthy Era, many of these pathetic refugees had gotten good government positions; and, by way of showing their deep gratitude to the American People, they systematically corrupted the government and endangered national security, by working as spies for Marxist Russia. The most notorious of these spies, the Rosenbergs, were executed for treason. This had the intended beneficial effect of stopping most of the dangerous spying; but it had the unintended consequence of causing these Marxists to seek social and economic power by pretentiously assimilating into the Conservative Republican and Liberal Democrat parties; where they quickly evolved into the Neo-Conservatives and Neo-Liberals, with insidious ideological opposition to traditional Christian Culture and Constitutional Principles. The result of the subversive influence by these self-serving Crypto-Neo-Marxists in the government, schools, news media and entertainment media was the increasingly intolerable cultural degeneration that has caused the American Cultural War.
Neo-Marxist Ideology is notoriously characterized by:
1. Contempt for Patriotism
2. Contempt for Christianity
3. Contempt for the Right to Bear Arms
4. Contempt for the Right to Freedom of Speech
5. Contempt for the Principle of Defensive Foreign War
6. Contempt for Darwin’s Theory of Natural Selection
7. Contempt for the Sanctity of the Nuclear Family
8. Contempt for the Sanctity of Human Life
9. Contempt for the Humanitarian Sanctions by United Nations of the World
10. Contempt for Traditional Republicans and Democrats
All of this contempt is transparently motivated by a dogmatic belief in gaining an advantage by self-serving insubordination to the practice of national religious and governmental traditions, which grant the inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. These Neo-Marxists zealots, like their foolish Marxists predecessors, imagine that they will somehow create their new superior self-serving civilization, if they first destroy the traditional allegiance to the nuclear family, Christianity, nationalism, and the Constitution.
Israel, which these Marxists refugees have had all to themselves to try out their incredible utopian social engineering ideas on their own little artificially created state, is notoriously poorly governed ; and the Israeli People, once the most widely pitied in the World, have come to justly earn the distinction of now being universally despised and condemned.
In this 2008 presidential battle of the American Cultural War shall the Reagan Conservatives and the Kennedy Liberals finally combine forces against these desperately united Podhoretz Neo-Cons and Leiberman Neo-Libs; or shall they continue to suffer the increasing ideological subversion of their Republican and Democrat parties, the corruption of their traditional Christian and Constitutional culture, and the sacrifice of the wealth and blood of the American People to sole benefit of Israel?
Shall Neo-Con McCain have a date for the presidency, or a date for the Republican firing squad party; and, shall Neo-Lib Hillary have a date for the presidency, or a date for the Democrat witch burning party?