Polling the 11th (Again)
The poll, paid for by 1199, was done by Kiley & Company and studied 500 Democratic primary voters in the district between May 14-17. It's dated -- taken prior to Nick Perry's withdrawl from the race -- but the cross-tabs reveal a couple of noteworthy trends in the demographically mixed district.
One question about the issues that concerned voters most revealed a sharp racial divide, with 45% of white voters reponding that the war in Iraq concerns them most, against just 16% of black voters. (The top issue among black voters in this district, at 19%, was education.)
And when the poll asked for second choices among the candidates, Clarke emerged as the top alternate for supporters of Andrews, Perry and Owens -- though not for Yassky voters.
Detailed results, for whoever's interested, can be found here.
—Nicole Brydson
This was an obvious leak by Clarke or even Andrews, with the bios and all other evidence of skewering taken out. Clarke needed this poll to force herself out there as the frontrunner, even though that's far from the case in reality. She played herself up and Owens down in the actual polling parts.
As for Perry, he was in on this and played himself up. Ha! It did nothing for him, so he dropped out.
1:10 doesn't have a clue. The 'playing up' part of the methodology consists of candidate descriptions which were provided to the respondants *after* an initial 'who would you vote for if the election were held today' question. So 27% of the electorate would vote for Yvette today, a number which fundamentally stayed the same after each of the candidates were described (based on information provided by the campaigns themselves). The poll was independent and mirrors what the Assembly poll came up with. Despite what all the political geniuses who are commenting here and elsewhere on this race say, the electorate is with Yvette and will be in September.
YVETTE IS NOT GOING TO WIN. STOP FOOLING YOURSELF 1:25. On the ground and in the streets she is despised by too many people. Both ah she and her mother are unpopular with various segments of the constituency. That's a reality that you can't just 'spin' away.
so moving beyond the hacks' comments, I'd say that the most interesting page in the poll is the last one. Yassky loses in a two-way race to all candidates except the one that dropped out. Sounds like he's the last choice for everyone.
My oh my. Without providing US wuth the text of the push/pull messages, it is hard to read the poll. What is certain is that the info provided in that message did NOT come from the campaigns...but rather from some pollster's view---biased or not we do not know, informed or not, we do not know----of the various positive and negative messages about a candidate. So for example, was the Andrews message hey Elliot Spitzer was his boss ain't that great, but he was the best man at Clarence Norman's wedding? We do not know.
It revolts me personally, but anyone who says Clarke CAN'T win is ignorant or biased. No doubt, she will use this poll to raise money and her opponents will use it as an excuse to put a bullseye on her back. For example, how will Yvette do with voters after it is revealed that in her first term on the Council she co-sponsored a resolution on the Middle East with Charles Barron? The so-called "even handed" reesolution. She was one of only seven sponsors.
This is something that will surely see the light of day because the poll is a moment away from the other statistic about this race that matters: who has how much money in the bank. As I understand it, Mr., Yassky has about a million, which is FAR more than the others and even more relevant, far more than Clarke does.
Lastly, Clarke has decided to hire money eating, grimey down in the mud campaign styling Gary Tilzer. Anyone who thinks that this will have no effect on the tenor of the campaign does not know Tilzer. He will get n the mud...now will that help or hurt Ms. Clarke? We will see...
Perry, who was never really running to begin with read the poll right....he was in last. But the only other way to read this poll is that it is anyone's race to win, though Chris Owens had better find a bug sugar daddy and stress those local issues.
And, unfortunately for Mr.Andrews, when IS that next Norm,an trial due to happen?
it is simple. the poll was done in may. it provides no indication of who will come out on top on sept. 12th.