One narrative that pervaded much of the coverage of Tuesday’s primary - specifically with Sheldon Silver and Marty Connor on the ballot - was the notion that it was turning into a referendum on incumbency. (Having Obama and McCain talk about “change” all the time only helped feed that notion.)

Which isn’t exactly how voters in the district saw things. Neither did some major power brokers, like the New York Hotel Trades Council, whose union members carried literature for both Silver, a long-time incumbent, and Dan Squadron, new-guy challenger. I asked Mike Rabinowitz, deputy director for policy at NYHTC, how his members in the field carried both the Silver and Squadron messages.  read more »

Here, thanks to a knowledgeable reader, are some numbers from Dan Squadron's upset victory over 30-year incumbent State Senator Marty Connor.

It looks like Squadron pretty much won everywhere, which calls into some question the potency of the support Connor got from several local Democratic clubs that endorsed him, as well as the institutional support he had from other elected officials.

Also, it looks like labor, which went mostly for Squadron, played an important role.

Squadron took a ton of votes from Battery Park City, which was created after Connor got into office.

In the 2nd Election District inside the 64th Assembly District, Squadron got 73 votes, compared to Connor’s 24.  read more »

I just got back from Greenwich and Chambers Street in Manhattan, where some Dan Squadron volunteers (at least one wearing an 1199 SEIU t-shirt) were handing out literature as a public school was letting out for the day.

One woman across the street, Roann Kolvenbach, handed back the Squadron flier she was given and said she didn’t know whether she was voting for him or for incumbent State Senator Marty Connor.

But she did tell me she’d be voting for Sheldon Silver, who represents the in the Assembly.

Kolvenbach, a mother of two elementary school children attending P.S. 234, said that Silver has been particularly responsive on the issue of school overcrowding.  read more »

Here’s an anti-Marty Connor mailing I picked up near the intersection of Delancey and Clinton Streets. It attacks some of Connor’s votes on housing in both English and Spanish.

It's an issue Connor's opponent, Dan Squadron, has made one of his main lines of criticism, although Connor's supporters disagree with the idea that he is un-progressive on housing.

The flier lists nearly every major person who endorsed Squadron. Except Michael Bloomberg and Anthony Weiner.

Political consultant Hank Sheinkopf—who's seen many, many primaries—indulged me with a few predictions about the outcome of some of today's competitive races:

Assemblyman Sheldon Silver by 10 points.
State Senate challenger Dan Squadron by 10 points.
Representative Ed Towns by 8 to 10 points.
State Senator Kevin Parker by only 2 points.

Agree? Disagree?

It's hard to spot the underdog between State Senator Marty Connor and his challenger Dan Squadron, partly because  Connor has lagged behind Squadron in fund-raising.

Apparently, Connor is quickly making up some ground, just in time for tomorrow's primary.

Between September 2 and 4, Connor’s re-election committee received a total of $39,000, according to the State Board of Elections' web site.

Among the contributors were Connor himself ($15,000), the Democratic State Senate Campaign Committee ($12,000), David Paterson’s campaign ($4,000), and John Sabini‘s campaign ($2,500).

Connor also gave his campaign $20,000 on August 27.

Citizens Union announced it is backing State Senator Marty Connor for re-election over his challenger Dan Squadron.

C.U. basically calls it a draw on the question of which one is more progressive, but says Connor’s experience gives him an edge in actually implementing the agenda. Which completely ignores Squadron's complaint that there is little to show for all of Connor's years in office.

C.U. cites Squadron’s lack of disclosure with respect to his personal finances. It's an ironic twist on what was, after all, Squadron's opening line of attack against Connor.

And C.U. criticized Squadron for saying he would go on a listening tour to set help formulate his legislative priorities after getting into office.  read more »

A former press guy for Howard Dean and Mark Green endorsed Assembly challenger Paul Newell, surrogate candidate Nora Anderson, and incumbent State Senator Marty Connor.

Brooklyn Papers endorsed Kevin Powell for congress, Dan Squadron over Marty Connor for State Senate, and Mike McMahon for congress.

Newell attacked Sheldon Silver’s spokesman for trashing a mailing sent by a Republican-funded organization.

And Streetsblog offers its own spin on what Silver has done for lower Manhattan, which they say isn’t much.

Citizens Union is hosting a debate between Democratic State Senator Marty Connor and his primary challenger Dan Squadron on September 3.

Their first debate, last May, was organized by the liberal group Democracy for New York City.

Since then, endorsements have been rolled out on both sides. Connor got the support of his colleagues in the State Senate, and several members of Congress. Squadron was endorsed by Michael Bloomberg, Scott Stringer and Brian Kavanagh.

The debate is taking place at Founders Hall at St. Francis College, 180 Remsen Street in Brooklyn Heights, at 7 p.m.

Thirty-year incumbent State Senator Marty Connor's opponent, the Schumer-back first-time candidate Dan Squadron, was just endorsed by Michael Bloomberg.

Connor told me he's not interested in the mayor's support.

Reached on his cell phone just now, the senator said, “I’m proud that I have Democrats supporting me. The last time I looked, Mike Bloomberg wasn’t a Democrat. He was helping the Republicans keep the State Senate.”

Republican political consultant Gerry O’Brien isn’t sure what to make of Bloomberg’s support of Squadron.

“It could be an anti-Albany thing. It could be a pro-Schumer thing,” he said. Overall, however, he said the message is, “Mike Bloomberg still counts, he matters.  read more »