Doug Schoen, the noted pollster who crunched numbers for Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in the mid 1990's, and for Michael Bloomberg’s 2001 mayoral race, said last night that he doesn’t think Bloomberg will run for president.

Schoen, speaking at a forum about presidential polling at Baruch College, was answering a question from an audience member who wanted to know which of the two major parties would be most affected by a Bloomberg presidential run.

“Let me just say at the outset I don’t think he is going to run,” Schoen said. “Largely Phil’s question is an academic one. It was very interesting to me that at this point, he appears to be hurting the Republicans at least as much if not more than the Democrats. I think the reason for that has more to do with disaffected Republicans who probably don’t want to vote, at this point, for Hillary Clinton--who hear, you know, Independent Michael Bloomberg, don’t know much about who Michael Bloomberg is, and are saying, ‘You know what, we don’t want to vote Republican, and this is an alternative.”

More after the jump.  read more »

Here's Republican strategist Bill O'Reilly's take on the Kelly for Mayor mayor boomlet that found expression in the Times and on the opinion page of the Daily News over the weekend:

“All the buzz about Ray Kelly shows how eager New Yorkers are to keep the city moving in the same direction. There is definite fear out there about handing the keys to City Hall back to a career politician. The past 16 years have been a wildly successful experiment for New Yorkers; they have shown that extraordinary individuals from outside the normal political process can do the job better."

Which I imagine is also a neat preview of the argument John Catsimatidis or whoever the main non-Democrat is going to be if Kelly doesn't run.  read more »

Here's Quinnipiac pollster (and former reporter) Mickey Carroll on the steps of City Hall earlier today talking about the ongoing Eliot Spitzer saga.

Carroll said it's so bizarre, you just have to "stay tuned. How do you know? It's crazy!" It started out as a New York Post story so "the other folks don't like it so much." And by other folks, he means reporters. When asked how vulnerable all this made Spitzer, Carroll said, "I think what you got to say is 'who else is around.' Andrew Cuomo--and then some Republican or other."

A few minutes ago I ran into Eliot Spitzer's former gubernatorial challenger, John Faso.

Faso has had the unfortunate luck of running against two Democrats who became embroiled in ethical flaps after it would have been of any political use to him. First, he came within about 162,000 votes of of beating Alan Hevesi in 2002. By the 2006 re-election, Hevesi was engulfed in a scandal about using state employees to chauffeur his ailing wife. That year, Faso ran against Spitzer, who now has his own problems.

Faso, now a lobbyist with Manatt, Phelps and Phillips. was heading into City Hall but stopped here to chat with Mickey Carroll of Quinnipiac and City Hall gadfly Rafael Martinez Alequin.

Alequin, never one to miss an opportunity, asked Faso if he was going to run for office again, to which Faso jokingly replied, "I'm running for my life."

OK, last post of the day on that congestion pricing poll...

Quinnipiac pollster Mickey Carroll defended his findings showing New York City voters split over congestion pricing, with Manhattan heavily in favor and the outer boroughs heavily against.

Critics said he ensured a negative result by failing to explain the benefits of congestion pricing and simply asking people if they would pay for something that is currently free.

“What they want you to do is basically a push poll,” Carroll just told me. Congestion pricing is “not something they don’t know anything about. It’s at least in public discussion.”

“By asking people their opinion, you get their opinion,” he said.

But Carroll said his critics weren’t wrong to say more information about congestion pricing should have been included.

“There’s nothing the matter with push polls, as long as it's honest information,” he said. “

So where is the line between providing in-depth, honest information, and leading people to a result you want?

“I don’t know. That’s a good question.”  read more »

Pictured here is Mickey Carroll, the Quinnipiac pollster who has a survey about Mike Bloomberg's presidential bid, and Kevin Sheekey, the deputy mayor who helps keep the rumor of that bid alive.

As for the mayor's intentions of actually running, Carroll said "If he didn't like the idea, he'd tell Kevin to knock it off."