U.S. Republican Party

‘Flutie’ Mooted   To the Editor:    read more »

Five years ago, former Senator Fred Thompson seemed ready to say goodbye to White House dreams for g  read more »

The outcry from Congressional Democrats was justifiably loud when conservative members resorted to p  read more »

If pragmatism prevails in the Republican primaries and caucuses next winter—a questionable pro  read more »

Of the suggestion that Senator Joseph Lieberman will up and leave the Democratic Party for good, the  read more »

Mike Ferguson, a conservative Republican who was re-elected to his suburban New Jersey seat by less than two percent of the vote last year, just announced that he would vote against the resolution condemning the escalation of the war.

The youthful and ambitious pol, who engaged in some rather embarrassing district-shopping before winning his 7th District seat in 2000, nearly saw his political career collapse last November, when Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender mounted a strong challenge by criticizing Ferguson's loyalty to the House GOP leadership.

She is considering challenging him again next year -- and his vote against this resolution now figures to feature prominently in that campaign.

-- Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki sends in this dark take on the progress of the House's Iraq War resolution:

As even many House members have pointed out, there is a certain sham quality to the four-day Iraq War debate now underway in the people's House.

All 434 members (there is now a vacancy, with Tuesday's death of Republican Charlie Norwood of Georgia) were given speaking slots ahead of time. Most of them show up at their allotted time, and read prepared (and predictable) remarks for a few minutes to a chamber that is almost completely empty. There is almost no dialogue between the sides. Obviously, each member's comments are aimed at their constituents back home, who will probably see a 15-second snippet on their local news.  read more »

The debate will wrap up tomorrow, when the House will approve a two-paragraph resolution expressing support for the American troops in Iraq and opposition to President Bush's escalation to the war. The only suspense is over how many Republicans will break ranks and side with the Democratic-authored resolution -- the best guess now is between 30 and 40. (This is why John Boehner, the House GOP leader, has been complaining so loudly about the Democrats' refusal to allow consideration of GOP-backed alternatives: With only one option to cast a vote on Iraq, Republicans from competitive districts will have no choice but to side with the Democrats in the end.)

I just caught up with Republican state Senator Serph Maltese to talk to him about yesterday's victory by Craig Johnson.

On one subject of immediate speculation -- the possibility of partisan defections -- Maltese said he spoke with John Bonacic and Joe Robach, two GOP state senators who, like him, are rumored to be considering a party switch that would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats.

"I spoke with both of them last night," Maltese said, "and both of them told me it's total baloney and they're not interested in switching parties."

He explained yesterday's loss in Nassau County, at least in part, by pointing to Iraq.

"There was still enough spillover from the war in Iraq and resentment from the president," Maltese said. "Hopefully in November of next year, the war will be resolved and our troops will be home and it won't be an issue."

About the anti-gay marriage flier from the Nassau County Conservative Campaign Committee, Maltese, a former Conservative Party chairman in Queens, said, "Anybody asks me anything about that, I say don't do it. They usually come back and hit you in the face."

And as for the impact of yesterday's loss on GOP state chairman Joe Mondello?

None, said Maltese.

"I don't know if that's a referendum on Joe and his leadership. I have full confidence in him," he said.

"They say the race was run in a textbook fashion," he continued, but there were "circumstances beyond his control."

-- Azi Paybarah

Before Serph Maltese debunked the rumor that he would switch parties or step down from his seat, the conventional wisdom was that another Republican might step in to help. Enter Dennis Gallagher.

As a Republican City Council member, he's in the super minority there. But, as the only other publicly elected Republican in Maltese's district, Gallagher has some wag-the-dog cache.

Gallagher just told me he's not interested in challenging Maltese, but said if Maltese wasn't on the ballot, "I'd have to look at it."

When asked about the GOP chairman Joe Mondello, Gallagher said, "I reached out to the chairman. I guess he hasn't had time to call me back." He went on to say, "The Republican Party must go back to its grass roots."

-- Azi Paybarah

I caught up with Republican state Senator Frank Padavan on his way into session in the capitol just a moment ago and asked him about what the Senate Republicans will do now after losing the seat in Nassau.

"We continue to do what we think is right for the electorate," he said.

When I asked him his thoughts about state GOP chair Joe Mondello, who just lost the state senate seat in his own backyards, Padavan said he wasn't involved with the race enough to comment. Then, Padavan, never one for small talk, rushed into session, which ended a few moments later.

Focus right now is on another Republican senator from Queens, Serph Maltese, who narrowly won re-election and had problems mayor Bloomberg's re-election. I called his office to ask if he would switch parties or leave the Senate before his re-election in 2008.

His spokeswoman said he'd call me back.

-- Azi Paybarah

Fresh off his "statement of candidacy," Rudy Giuliani will head off to California this weekend to raise some money and address the GOP convention in Sacramento.

What isn't on the public schedule is a private meeting with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said a source familiar with the trip.

With talk of California possibly moving up its primary schedule, the state takes on added importance for Giuliani, whose moderate positions -- relative to the rest of the prospective 2008 field on the GOP side -- should be an unqualified positive there.

Giuliani already enjoys the diehard backing of Bill Simon, the 2002 Republican candidate for governor of California, who held a fund-raiser for Giuliani at his Pacific Palisades home on Jan. 29th. With all the necessary caveats about the overstated importance of endorsements, the addition of Schwarzenegger would be big.

--Jason Horowitz

Chuck Hagel is the new John McCain.    read more »

In a sign that a plague of locusts may soon descend upon us, Ed Koch said that he agrees with the legislature in its fight with the governor.

Hillary Clinton's electability question is getting answered...by Republicans.

An NYU professor who went to college with Barack Obama says that his former classmate is less qualified than George W. Bush was when he was elected president.

The GOP state chairman waved his finger in a bunch of faces and got loud.

George Pataki has an Iraq plan.

Jerry Skurnik reports that Gerry Hopkins, Ferdinand Zini and Mozell Albright were removed from the ballot in the special council election in Brooklyn.

Aaron Naparstek has Iris Weinshall's going-away letter.

My interview with John Catsimatidis is stirring up Republican chatter about the possibility of another rich mayor, and "whether offering Bloomberg the GOP line was worth it."

A list of the 15 most important thinkers and doers working on racial justice is here.

And pictured above is Joe Bruno at a press conference earlier today.

-- Azi Paybarah

The New York County Republican Organization last night elected Jennifer Saul Yaffa, a GOP national committee member, as county chair, a Manhattan Republican insider confirmed.

Yaffa succeeds James Ortenzio, who helped organize the Republican National Convention. They're both considered close to Pataki, which seems to be a quality in rare abundance these days.

-- Azi Paybarah

Barack Obama launched his Presidential exploratory committee this week as a top-tier Democratic Pres  read more »

Tom DiNapoli is circulating a letter to colleagues outlining reasons why he should be the next state comptroller.

In keeping with prevailing theme of political independence, DiNapoli stresses a willingness to work with Republicans in the legislature.

"While I am certainly a proud Democrat, I have never hesitated to work with my Republican colleagues in the Assembly and Senate to support legislation in the public interest. I have always believed that partisanship must never get in the way of good government. My ability to be an effective, independent comptroller - to call it as I see it - is just a logical extension of that philosophy."

DiNapoli also touts the role he played in helping Nassau emerge from its fiscal crisis after years of GOP control.

Coincidentally, that fiscal turnaround was also a central theme of the gubernatorial campaign of Tom Suozzi, who defeated DiNapoli in a race for county executive.

The rest of the letter is after the jump.  read more »

-- Azi Paybarah

The last time he ran for President, John McCain lost out on the Republican nomination and yet still  read more »

What, exactly, should we conclude from this?

"On Monday, Spitzer held an hour-long, one-on-one meeting with Sen. John Bonacic-R-C-Mount Hope. Bonacic and Spitzer talked about the Mohawk casino, health care and property taxes, sources in government say."

Spitzer has already hired one person from the Senate Republican conference and talk is he's looking for another. And Bonacic, for what it's worth, seems ripe for the picking.

Bonacic recently bucked his conference by refusing to vote for Joe Bruno for majority leader. It was not, in any way that's apparent to me, the action of someone who's planning to stay in his current job for the long term.

-- Azi Paybarah

Here's a look at some numbers for the people running for that state Senate seat that Republican Michael Balboni is vacating in Nassau County.

The Republicans are now backing Maureen O'Connell, who in 2005 won a countywide election for Nassau County Clerk, and who served in the Assembly since 1999, making her a candidate with proven vote-getting credentials in Nassau.

In the 2005 race, O'Connell defeated Democrat Tricia Ferrell by about 17,000 votes.

But in Balboni's district, O'Connell narrowly lost: 49.9 to 50.1, according to a Democratic source who had access to information tabulated by the State Democratic Party.

According to the source, of the 198,000 voters in the state senate district, 36,800 of them were in O'Connell's former Assembly district. Slightly more voters, 46,000, were in the county legislative district represented by Craig Johnson, the Democrat who will be running against O'Connell in the state Senate race.

I've been trying to verify these numbers with the county Republicans but haven't had any luck yet.

-- Azi Paybarah

Chuck Schumer, politician, campaign guru and fund-raiser extraordinaire, is now also officially an author.

From "Positively American," the senator's 270-page offering which is scheduled to show up in stores later this month, we'll get his take on the Democratic Party's appeal and the Supreme Court, among other things.

Schumer has said that he is not satisfied with the Democratic takeover of the Senate that he helped engineer this year, and is offering a strategy in this book for attracting middle class families who are not committed to either major political party.

Schumer was at first reluctant about taking on the head job at the DSCC, but has said that he did so in part because of the lasting impact that a GOP-led Congress could have had by appointing more conservatives to the Supreme Court.

-- Jason Horowitz

UPDATE: After being made aware by the Schumer people of certain embargo details, we've re-posted this item without some quotes and details that were in the original. The official publication date is Jan. 23.

There's a theory that no legislator wants to be the last one to hold together a fading majority. As a result, there's been a fair amount of speculation among reporters and political insiders about whether there might not be another state Senate Republican preparing to follow Michael Balboni's lead by bolting the GOP conference to go work in some capacity for the Spitzer administration.

One state Democratic official told me that despite a report that he had already reject an overture, Serph Maltese was still "target number one" of the Spitzer administration's recruitment efforts, partly because of his close re-election this year -- meaning that his seat is eminently winnable for Democrats -- and because of his record of working with local Democrats around his district.

It's an intriguing notion, although Maltese has so far done nothing to indicate that he intends to make an early exit.

At a swearing ceremony last night at Christ the King High School, according to one attendee, Maltese thanked the roughly 250 guests for their help and jokingly noted that he really had needed each and every one of them to win this year. Maltese also said, meaningfully, that he loves being a state senator and wants to keep his seat for at least few more years.

Spitzer spokesperson Christine Anderson declined to comment.

-- Azi Paybarah

The news that Rudy Giuliani has signed a fast-rising and highly regarded Republican operative to hea  read more »

Here's a novel theory:

According to a prominent Republican operative not associated with Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor's fund-raiser tonight is an indication that he needs cash to keep his testing the waters committee afloat.

It's a circular but fairly simple piece of logic: Because of the purely exploratory function of the committee Giuliani has set up, none of the money he raises tonight could be applied to a presidential campaign. (Campaign finance rules dictate that money raised by testing the waters committees can be used to pay for things like staff or tickets for travel, but cannot be used for any sort of messaging, such as political advertisements.)

Therefore, having an event like this at such a late date in the year, before the new fund-raising cycle begins, can only mean that Giuliani -- who has been one of the GOP's top money-raising attractions for a while now -- has burned through much of his own Solutions America PAC money and needs more cash, as the fund-raiser put it, "to keep the jets fueled."

--Jason Horowitz

Now that the new state GOP leadership is in place, the head of the city's largest Republican County organization in the city, Serph Maltese of Queens is hoping for a period of healing.

"I'm hoping those who have differences with me or the new leadership will join in because we need all the help we can get," Maltese told me.

He was refering to the selection of Allison Coccia as the party's executive director over [] Haggerty, the former political director of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, new state chairman Joe Mondello can take "advantage of the experience she has running an urban state." Also, the new person won't have ties to any of the local political fights.

"There's the Pataki wing of the party, a Minarik wing of the party, a Bruno wing of the party, a D'Amato wing," Maltese said.

"There's prior tension in the party. Joe was elected unanimously. That's a good sign that people want us to go ahead. There was criticism by [John] Faso and [John] Spencer that the party was not doing enough. I think there was recognition by everyone that the party did not do enough."

"We need the help. It's very obvious. We were unable to take advantage of the comptroller race. Faso and Spencer did not get the statewide assistance they should have gotten."

-- Azi Paybarah

John Haggerty may have competition for the job of state GOP executive director.

The Brennan Center's blog says Albany needs elections that matter, not just term limits.

Eliot Spitzer's nominee to head the Port Authority wants to take a fresh look at Ground Zero and the Freedom Tower.

Alan Hevesi passed up the chance to speak to the Albany grand jury, with his lawyer continuing to say that he did nothing wrong.

Christine Quinn's 421-a plan could cost Bruce Ratner millions.

Political Wire says Barack Obama sounds like he's running.

Kos thinks Joe Liberman's call for more troops in Iraq contradicts what the senator said during the campaign.

Lou Dobbs, the new Ross Perot?

And above is an ad for civil unions.

-- Azi Paybarah

Mike Bloomberg said Rudy should just "go for it" and run in 2008 because he would "probably be a good president."

Speaking of nice words, Alan Hevesi's lawyer once had some for Eliot Spitzer.

And here are some more: "Eliot Spitzer would be a great running mate for Barack Obama." http://democracyforum.blogspot.com/2006/11/eliot-spitzer-for-running-mat...

Wayne Barrett didn't have any for Democrats, writing that "the GOP senate victory was also a commentary on the calamity of Democratic strategy and resolve, even in a year of historic opportunity."

Karl Rove may be leaving the White House sooner than expected.

Barack Obama wants the negative robo calls to be outlawed.

The red and blue voting map of the country now looks like this.

Reporters, accused of being too kind to Democrats, often respond by being more aggressive under Democratic administrations.

Powerlines has kind things to say about Rudy, John McCain and Mitt Romney, but saves some praise for a fourth major candidate who may emerge to win the GOP nomination.

That fourth candidate will not be Rick Santorum.

And above is a group of John Hall supporters.

-- Azi Paybarah

Steve Malanga, senior fellow at Giuliani's preferred think tank, the Manhattan Institute, thinks that Rudy Giuliani's formation of a exploratory committee for president was as good as an official declaration. Almost.

"Having talked to some of the people in Rudy's administration, I think they give it up to 90 percent chance that he will run," said Malanga. "The odds seem to be in favor of it."

Malanga, along with a number of other Giuliani observers I've been talking to, said that the GOP setbacks in Tuesday's midterm elections only make his candidacy more likely.

"The election, to a certain extent, makes a candidate like Rudy more interesting in 2008. The far right, the Christian right, is likely to have less influence in the next election within the party. Moderates are going to be looking for a candidate with broader appeal.

"He is one of the people with a national appeal that fits that model. That helps with the typical criticism that he won't make it through the primary."

--Jason Horowitz

On many levels, the apparently imminent selection of Joseph Mondello to run the state Republican Party is a real head-scratcher. He's the guy, after all, who oversaw the demise of the Nassau GOP that both foreshadowed and contributed to the collapse of its state counterpart.

The best, most obvious explanation for his ascent is that he's taking a job that, for now, no one else wants.

But outspoken GOP strategist Ed Rollins, at least, is happy with the choice. "As a party boss," he said, "there's nobody better."

Rollins made the unlikely argument that Mondello is, at this point, enough of an outsider to tackle an organization that needs a complete overhaul. "The role is different when you don't have any state offices...He's got to build a totally independent fund-raising organization," and build the party "from the grassroots."

Solid logic? Or wishful thinking?

-- Azi Paybarah

It took every last ballot they could scrounge up in Virginia last week to lift Democrats, by the slimmest margin possible, to control of the Senate for the first time in four years.

Swelling their ranks in 2008, though, shouldn't require nearly as much nervous perspiration and nail-biting.

The reason is rooted in math: In the '08 round of Senate elections, Republicans will have 21 seats to defend, compared to the Democrats' 12. That means nine more opportunities for Democrats to flip GOP seats - some in otherwise blue state - than for Republicans to gain ground. In other words, the Democrats should be playing offense.

Call it one of the underappreciated consequences of success in politics. The Republican-rich class of senators set to face the voters in '08 is a product of the 2002 midterm cycle, when the GOP's electoral savagery - best encapsulated in the loathsome Georgia television spot that likened Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden - keyed a history-defying drive in which they held all but one of their Senate seats and actually wrested three from the Democrats.

But the shelf-life for big classes dominated by one party doesn't typically extend past year six. Recall the 44-state Reagan landslide of 1980, which unexpectedly vaulted the GOP to Senate control - while at the same time positioning eight Republican incumbents to be swept out of office in 1986, when Democrats won the chamber back.

Granted, it is too soon to say which party the national political environment will favor in '08 - a presidential election year, after all. Nor do we yet know the caliber of the individual candidates each party will recruit in potentially key races.

Still, look closer at which senators are up in two years - and, just as important, where they are up - and the early political cartography is indeed favorable to the Senate's new majority party. The American Prospect's blog suggests there could be "56 or more" Senate Democrats when the next president takes office. That number feels highs - neither party has controlled more than 55 seats since 1994 - but the point is well taken.

The first thing to consider is who will retire.

Only three '08 Senate Democrats seem like contenders for this category: John Forbes Kerry and Joe Biden - who, at least for now, are amusing themselves with a "Who Can Wage The More Absurd Presidential Campaign?" contest - and Frank Lautenberg, who will be 84 years old in two years.

None of those three are likely to hang it up, though. Kerry and Biden can both file for re-election in their home states months after being humbled in New Hampshire. And Lautenberg's exit, sort of like Joe Paterno's in football, is a perennial rumor, even if the man himself shows no signs of fatigue. No matter, Democrats would be heavily favored to retain all three seats, with or without the incumbents on the ballot.

Beyond that, just three '08 Democratic incumbents have immediate reason to worry: Mary Landrieu, whose career was saved in 2002 by New Orleans residents who may have left the state for good; Tim Johnson, who came within inches of losing his seat from red state South Dakota in '02; and Montana's Max Baucus, a fifth-termer who must always be politically vigilant in a state that President Bush won by 20 points in 2004.

But it's a different story for the GOP, which has a minimum of three very ripe '08 retirement prospects - each in an eminently winnable state for the Democrats.

Like Virginia, where 79-year-old John Warner, as difficult as he is to read, is unlikely to stick around the Senate much longer, now that he's been stripped of his Armed Services gavel. And Colorado, where two-term Republican Wayne Allard, re-elected with just 51 percent of the vote in 2002, would have to go back on a term limits pledge to run again in '08. And New Mexico, home of septuagenarian Pete Domenici, who has at times tooled around the Capitol in a scooter in recent years.

Those three states each already have one Democratic senator (senator-elect, in Virginia's case) and voted for the Democratic candidate in their most recent gubernatorial elections - prime pick-up targets for the party, in other words, if the GOP incumbents stand down.

And those are just the obvious GOP retirement prospects.

Ted Stevens of Alaska will be 85 in '08, though at least there the Republicans would be nearly assured of holding the seat. But North Carolina - a state that once sent John Edwards to the Senate and that has been governed by Democrats for 14 consecutive years - could get interesting if Elizabeth Dole, now 70 and licking the wounds from her horrific just-completed tenure as the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, opts to become the second former senator in her home. And what if 70-year-old Pat Roberts bags it in Kansas-- where an exceedingly popular Democratic governor waits in the wings?

Then there are the Republicans who are certain to run again - facing potentially unpredictable blue state electorates. Norm Coleman in Minnesota, perhaps squaring off against Al Franken in what would be the most entertaining '08 race, and New Hampshire's John Sununu, who is praying his state's rock star Democratic governor doesn't catch Potomac Fever, are at the top of this watch list.

Of course, the Democrats' success this year makes having a banner year in '08 a virtual imperative for them. After all, their last two strong Senate years - 2000 and this year - involved the same class. So perhaps it's not too early to note that in 2012, 24 of the 33 seats up will be Democratic.

Democrats want to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq within months.

Nancy Pelosi is backing John Murtha for as majority leader.

Russ Feingold said he won't run for president, and never really wanted to.

Howard Wolfson gets profiled.

Stephen Minarik, the state Republican Party chairman, is stepping down and could be replaced by the chairman in Nassau County, Joseph Mondello.

Newsday says that Minarik has Joe Bruno's support.

Alan Hevesi may step down as state comptroller to avoid prosecution from the Albany District Attorney.

Bill Thompson is reportedly not interested in succeeding Hevesi, opting to stay on as city comptroller and possibly run for mayor in 2009.

Ben has the back story on the angry real estate scion who helped oust Rep. Sue Kelly.

And the Times offers some advice to the state's Republican Party.

"New York's G.O.P. should embrace the city's dynamic mayor as its guiding star."

-- Azi Paybarah

At first glance, you might think Tom DeLay is enjoying the last laugh in this story. But read all the way through the the end -- the Democrat, former Representative Nick Lampson, is actually leading in Texas's 22nd District. The GOP write-in candidate is merely on course to serve out the final month of DeLay's term. -- Steve Kornacki

E. Scott Garrett, one of the most conservative members of the entire U.S. House, has been declared the winner in the northern New Jersey 5th Congressional District, holding off Democrat Paul Aronsohn. The seat, which serves some of the most rural and right-leaning areas of the state, was seen as fairly safe for Garrett-- one where defeat would signal doomsday for the national Republican Party.

Still unknown, however, is whether Republican Michael Ferguson has survived in the central Jersey-based 7th District, a less solidly GOP area. His opponent, Assemblywoman Linda Stender, has mounted a credible campaign in what is now the only unsettled race in the Garden State.

-- Steve Kornacki

Early Tennessee numbers suggest that Harold Ford's late-campaign swoon was no mirage. Given the brilliant campaign he ran and the horrific national climate for the GOP, some have suggested that a Ford loss would indicate the South is not yet ready to elect an African-American to to the Senate. Of more immediate significance, though, is the pressure his defeat would place on Democrats in Virginia, Missouri, Rhode Island, Montana and Arizona to win their Senate races tonight. Without Tennessee, Democrats would need to win four of those five states to claim the Senate. -- Steve Kornacki

Three-quarters of the votes in Kentucky's 3rd District are now in, and Republican incumbent Anne Northup still trails Democrat John Yarmuth by three points. Another bad, bad sign for the GOP's prospects nationally. -- Steve Kornacki

In what may be a fitting bookend, it appears likely that Rep. John Hostettler, a socially conservative Republican who won his southern Indiana House seat in the GOP revolution of 1994, will soon become the first official GOP casualty of the '06 cycle. Hostettler has been a top Democrat target every two years since his initial election and always he's survived (even though he's routinely been outspent) by relying on a zealous base of Christian conservative support. Is his looming defeat a sign that the chatter about the the GOP base being asleep has materialized? Or maybe that base has been overwhelmed by much higher than anticipated turnout among the general voting population?

Almost as soon as Vermont's polls closed, Democrat Peter Welch was declared the winner of the race for the state's lone U.S. House seat, downing Republican state Adjutant General Martha Rainville. This is not an upset, but this seat -- held by the outgoing independent/Democrat Bernie Sanders -- was actually one of the brighter pick-up prospects for the national GOP. The fact that they lost so decisively isn't a good signal for them. -- Steve Kornacki

Returns are now streaming in from Kentucky and Indiana, each home to several bellwether House races. With the caveat that we have no idea where in the district these numbers are coming from, the initial numbers from Kentucky's 3rd District spell trouble for the GOP. With 37 percent reporting:

John Yarmuth (Dem) 51% Anne Northup (Rep) 48%

Northup is a fifth-term incumbent who has had close calls before and John Kerry did win this district by a sliver in 2004, but a GOP loss here would probably signal a very big national Democratic wave. Yarmuth, who edits an alt-weekly newspaper, is seen as a very flawed candidate - someone Northup would handily beat if the national climate hadn't made the contest competitive.

The Washington Times, which mounts even less of an effort to mask its partisan leanings than the Fox News Channel, is an occasional source of amusement with its breathless adherence to the GOP message machine. Like this morning's if-we-keep-repeating-it-maybe-we-can-make-it-so headline and story: Kerry gaffe loses independents for his party

Here's the problem with this story, a one-note GOP talking point turgidly dressed up as a formal unveiling of news:

First, it is written off of a Pew survey that has the distinct look of an outlier - easily the closest (i.e. most GOP-friendly) generic ballot poll available on the market. To mention, for instance, that a Gallup poll (also conducted post-Kerry) actually has the Democrats ahead by 20 points would undercut the already flimsy legs of this story.

But that's not all.

From the Pew poll, one statistic of nebulous value is then- that 18 percent of independent voters had "serious doubts" about voting Democratic because of Kerry - and the story then proceeds to beat us over the head with its earth-shattering relevance, cluing in the brain dead among us that independents "are considered pivotal in today's congressional elections."

In a related development, it is considered likely that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning before setting, sometime later in the day, in the west.

The statistic about independents tells us little because - much in the way prosecutors are supposedly able to get juries to indict ham sandwiches - pollsters can always find 18 percent of independents troubled by just about any development in any campaign. And, if you read the fine print in the Pew poll itself (which the Times, of course, ignores) you will see that the 18 percent figure includes anyone who said the Kerry comment raised only "a little" doubt about his or her willingness to vote for the Democrats.

But a good Washington Times political story is never about facts or details. It's about a headline that hews to the GOP's message of the day, which in the run-up to the Election has been that Republicans are surging thanks to last-minute doubts about the Democrats. Hence the Times' assertion that this data - one broadly-worded question from one of the 62,000 or so polls now in circulation" - represents "a potentially significant shift of 'voting intentions' and raising speculation of further erosion among independents for the Democrats." Oh, and bonus points for tying it all to Kerry, a top-5 GOP bogeyman.

Also,

Hey, if it's in the paper, it must be true.

All of this makes us wonder how the paper will handle what will probably be very bad news for the GOP today. Suppose the Democrats win, say, 35 seats in the House and take back the Senate - essentially the doomsday scenario for the GOP. What will the headline read on tomorrow's Washington Times front page? Some suggestions:

Lugar, Hatch cruise in Indiana and Utah; Hastert easily re-elected to Illinois seat

or maybe:

Democrats take control of Congress - Pelosi yet to rule changing flag design to hammer and sickle.

Consider the mere possibility of this at your own risk, but there is some speculation that Senator Lincoln Chafee, who some think is mounting a late seat-saving charge in Rhode Island, might bid in victory bid adieu to the Republican Party - potentially giving the Democrats their 51st seat even if they fall short in tonight's returns.

The idea of Chafee changing parties is not new and in some ways makes an awful lot of sense. He's often called a moderate Republican, but he's really a liberal - to the left of many Senate Democrats - and was the lone GOP vote against the Iraq war. He also publicly refused to vote for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004 and, more recently, opposed the Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito. Last week, he won the endorsement of Myrth York - a big-name Rhode Island Democrat who has thrice been her party's gubernatorial nominee. Needless to say, if had switched parties a year or two ago, Chafee would probably have had a much easier path to re-election in blue state Rhode Island.

But the timing on this is off. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has poured millions of dollars into Little Rhody this year, fortifying Chafee first from a life-and-death challenge from the right in the GOP primary and now against his Democratic foe, Sheldon Whitehouse. For Chafee now to stick it to the Republican Party - which has cheerfully brooked every one of his apostasies so that he will vote to give them control of the Senate - would take the term 'ingrate' to a new level.

Still, if Chafee hangs on tonight and the chamber ends up split at 50/50, who knows what inducements Democrats might offer Chafee? Actually, the scenario feels a little like the spring of 2001, when Democrats flipped another very liberal New England Republican, Vermonter James Jeffords, to break a 50/50 tie.

(By the way - wouldn't it have saved everyone considerable trouble if at this time last year Chafee and Joe Lieberman struck a deal to trade parties for one year?)

The Washington Times, which mounts even less of an effort to mask its partisan leanings than the Fox News Channel, is an occasional source of amusement with its breathless adherence to the GOP message machine. Like this morning's if-we-keep-repeating-it-maybe-we-can-make-it-so headline: Kerry gaffe loses independents for his party

It makes us wonder how the paper will handle what will probably be very bad news for the GOP today. Suppose the Democrats win, say, 35 seats in the House and take back the Senate - essentially the doomsday scenario for the GOP. What will the headline read on tomorrow's Washington Times front page? Some suggestions:

Lugar, Hatch cruise in Indiana and Utah; Hastert easily re-elected to Illinois seat

or maybe:

Democrats take control of Congress - Pelosi yet to rule changing flag design to hammer and sickle.

Where Have All the Republicans Gone?  read more »

Where Have All the Republicans Gone?    read more »

Where Have All the Republicans Gone?    read more »

Where Have All the Republicans Gone?    read more »

Porn movie Nicholas Boyias of Marina Pacific Distributors - the people who brought you classic movies like Deep in the Brig, Man Academy, and Naval Escorts - isn't just a cinematic auteur. He's a Republican contributor (obviously attracted to the GOP's economic plans more so than their families value rhetoric).

According to this site, Boyias contributed $2,000 to Republicans, including $250 to John McCain and another $250 to the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is headed by upstate congressman Tom Reynolds.

-- Azi Paybarah

For voters in next week's Congressional elections, their decision on Tuesday may be a referendum on 1) the Bush administration and Iraq, 2) the economy, 3) GOP's handling of Mark Foley or 4) the idea of Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Rangel controlling one branch of government.

Few people, I presume, will cast their votes based on candidates' positions on the public financing of federal elections.

Common Cause NY is hoping that the issue public financing -- and the more general issue of governmental transparency -- is a growing concern, sending out word earlier today that while 18 Congressional candidates in New York have signed on to their Vote First pledge to support "full public financing of public elections," 44 have not.

It'll be worth noting after Tuesday if there are any consequences whatsoever for the candidates who didn't sign.

-- Azi Paybarah

John Spencer responded this morning to the front-page story in the News, in which he is quoted at length talking about Hillary's physical appearance, ("You ever see a picture of her back then? Whew,") and predicting defeat for fellow Republican Jeanine Pirro. Less than a day after practically introducing himself to New Yorkers on television, this is surely not the best way for Spencer to ingratiate himself to the state's voters or G.O.P.

And so Spencer, who complimented Hillary during the debate as a potentially "tremendous" presidential candidate, kicked into damage control mode this morning. He said on the WABC radio program Curtis and Kuby (audio on its way) that Ben, who reported the story, didn't hear him correctly. (Ben was sitting right next to one seat away from him, and said he typed Spencer's words directly into his omnipresent Blackberry.)

"It's so ridiculous that Ben Smith the blogger sitting next to me on an airplane, who quite frankly, made statements that I surely wouldn't repeat about other candidates in the race. He was in a giddy mood making statements, so I think in his conversational mind with a jet engine blowing in his right ear, uh, we had a rambling conversation about the sixties. That's what our conversation was about and how he came out with those ridiculous fabrications is beyond me."

Ben said he stands by his story. UPDATE: Here's that clip of Spencer. The denial seems to fit into Spencer's pattern of denying his own quotes.

-- Azi Paybarah