Jerry Skurnik

On the surface, the story is a familiar one.

A young insurgent, Dan Squadron, decides to challenge an entrenched incumbent, Marty Connor, in a State Senate race, in a year when public antipathy towards the ossified ways of Albany is greater than it has been in recent memory. The line between underdog liberal reformer and entrenched proponent of the status quo should be clear.

But a couple of unusual things have happened. Squadron, 28, has acquired the trappings, at least, of the establishment guy. He has raced out to a lead in high-increment fund-raising -- he has spent heavily but still has nearly $300,000 on hand, whereas Connor has barely spent $2500 and has only $83,000 -- and has gained support from some powerful labor entities like UNITE HERE, the Communication Workers of America and the union-backed Working Families Party.  read more »

Here’s something I didn’t get to squeeze into my story about the potential impact of Barack Obama’s nomination on New York politics: in the February 5 primary, 276,076 of the Democrats who voted in New York City had never voted before.

That’s according to Jerry Skurnik, a Democratic consultant and professional number-cruncher.  read more »

It should, theoretically, be the least of concerns for Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver's primary challengers to petition successfully for a place on the ballot. (Only 500 signatures are required in the district.) But they're not taking any chances.

This morning, one of Silver’s opponents, Luke Henry, announced that he’s retained Alan Zimmerman, a petition specialist. In announcing Zimmerman's hire, Henry's campaign said, "No campaign for which Zimmerman has directed the petitioning operation has ever failed to get onto the ballot. This is no small accomplishment in New York, where candidates are often 'bumped' from the ballot for failing to comply with meaningless technicalities."  read more »

Here's how longtime political consultant Jerry Skurnik explained why anyone cares who wins the ongoing race for one of two positions on Manhattan Surrogate's Court: “Because a lot of lawyers make a lot of money at the courts."

In particular, he went on, trust and real estate lawyers, "many of whom are politically connected, get really high fees in Surrogate's Court."  read more »

Here's the invitation to the holiday party hosted by Jerry Skurnik and Stuart Osnow of Prime New York, the warehouse for lots and lots of voter information in New York.

As always, the invitation was accompanied by some political poetry:  read more »

Last night I emailed a few people to ask who the real winners and losers were from yesterday’s elections.

Here’s some of what they said.

Joseph Mercurio:"The losers are the people who complicated an election where Democrats would have continued to pick up seats throughout the state by aggressively pushing a new plan for driver licenses that could have been announced Wednesday for the first time.  The winners will be the Democrats who took strong positions and won anyway."

Jerry Skurnik: "Overall there certainly wasn't the big Republican surge somebody thought would happen because of troopergate and the driver's license issue but the Dems did not continue to make gains as they did the last few years."

Evan Stavisky: "We [his firm, Parkside Group] defeated the 12-year incumbent District Attorney of Rockland County (who, earlier this year finished up his term as President of the NYS District Attorneys Association)."

Your thoughts?

The City Council will start interviewing Mathieu Eugene's family, landlord, and neighbors to find out whether the Councilman-elect was living in the district at the time of the election, a requirement for taking office.

According to one neighbor who spoke to the Daily News, things don't look good.

A downstairs neighbor, Daphne Charles, 28, said she remembers hearing people move in upstairs only "late in the week" of the Feb. 20 election.

If Eugene is disqualified from holding office, that would create another vacancy for the seat. The mayor would then have to call another special election, according to Jerry Skurnik.

-- Azi Paybarah

In the comments section, numbers man Jerry Skurnik raises a good point, and politely tells me to stop getting so excited about all these 2008 presidential polls.

"Since candidates have won when polls have shown them down by 20 points a week out, can we just agree right now that no poll a year and a half before an election with a margin of less than 20 means anything?"

In a quick telephone chat, Skurnik elaborated.

"Two weeks before the Iowa caucus, Howard Dean was ahead. And came in fourth," he said. Skurnik said even locally, early polls are not too reliable.

"Michael Bloomberg wasn't ahead of Mark Green in any polls until the very end" of the 2001 mayoral race.

Wonder if this'll slow the pace of all the 2008 polls we're seeing?

-- Azi Paybarah

Here's a list of people who filed petitions with the city's Board of Elections to run for City Council, courtesy of the encyclopedic Jerry Skurnik.

For the record, there appear to be 13 names down to run for the Yvette Clarke seat.

The filing deadline was yesterday.

-- Azi Paybarah

Jerry Skurnik includes some facts about the selection of judges which he said the Times missed in their recent editorial.

Liz Benjamin looks at some new rules the state Senate may vote on tomorrow.

Spin Cycle has more on these numbers that Maureen O'Connell produced when she ran for a countywide position in 2005.

Her first mailing is here.

While in Delaware recently, Rudy Giuliani said, "I think the biggest question you have to ask is, 'Can you really lead the country?' If I believe that I can do it, then I will, and if I don't, then I'll support somebody else."

Here's some more chatter about whether Barack Obama will announce his presidential candidacy on Oprah.

The head of the New York State Bar Association, Mark Alcott, said the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Detainee Affairs is "not fit for office."

Mass transit in the U.S. could save 1.4 billion gallons of oil a year.

Greg Sargent is moving his eye-on-the-media blog over to Josh Marshall's site.

And pictured above are some people listening to speeches at Al Sharpton's MLK celebration on West 145th Street.

-- Azi Paybarah

Glenn Thrush notes some interesting contributions to Hillary Clinton's PAC, including $12,000 in October from a handful of health care providers in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

In a speech today, Barack Obama said that "there are no good options left in this war" in Iraq.

Jerry Skurnik looked at diversity in judicial races, which is a focal point in the debate about whether to elect judges through primaries or conventions.

Ballots were sent out today to members of the Transport Workers Union who have a president to elect.

The military draft probably won't come back, says Chuck Schumer.

Day 1, everything exchanges. Except maybe the economy. Fox News cancelled the OJ Simpson "If I Did It" television special.

The debate coach at Jerry Falwell's university joined John McCain's exploratory committee.

And above is Adam Green.

-- Azi Paybarah

The city's newest congresswoman, Yvette Clarke, will get sworn into office next year, but the jockeying for her city council seat is well underway.

According to the encyclopedic Jerry Skurnik and a City Council source, the Mayor will call the special election within 3 days of the vacancy occurring (January 1). Then, the election is held within 30 or 60 days.

There are no run-offs, and it's a non-partisan race. Candidates have 10 days to petition and they follow rules as if they are creating your own party.

The race could have as many as six or seven candidates, some of whom I mentioned here.

Yesterday, two more candidates emerged. Jesse Hamilton and Zenobia McNally spoke to the Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats club where one attendee asked them about the Atlantic Yards [corrected].

According to Daily Gotham, when Hamilton was "asked about Atlantic Yards he gave a somewhat vague answer," and "Zenobia did seem too wary of directly criticizing Ratner's plan." -- Azi Paybarah

Jason Horowitz gets an earful from the Green Party's candidate for governor, Malachy McCourt, who isn't impressed with the other candidates.

"And they actually talk about rolling their sleeves up and getting to work--those fuckers. I have been a laborer. I worked on the docks. That was my fucking living for years. These fuckers have never worked--not a day."

Choire Sicha taps into the mind of Charles Barron, who recalled telling his wife once, "you need to know that God has called me to be a catalyst for the liberation of my people. Can you handle it?"

Jerry Skurnik has a must-read guide to the Times endorsements.

Last week, The Times went after longtime State Senator Martin Connor for challenging his opponent's residency in the Brooklyn district, citing his actions in an endorsement of his opponent, Ken Diamondstone. But in another legislative race in Queens, the paper backed the Assembly candidacy of Ellen Young--who had engaged in the same tactic.

And I look at the business community's new best friend, Christine Quinn.  read more »

-- Azi Paybarah

Jerry Skurnik, who knows about such things, offers his projection of who will vote, ethnicity and representative, in the heated Congressional primary in Brooklyn's 11th district.

Blacks 60%

Jewish 15%

Hispanics 8%

Seniors 24%

Women 60%

Councilman Yassky District 9%

Councilwoman Clarke District 16%

Senator Andrews' District 45%

Assemblyman Perry District 11%

Also on Room Eight: Gur hears talk of Donny Deutsch for Mayor. And Gatemouth blames Brooklyn for some of Israel's ills.