Rudy Giuliani

At Monday's Costume Institute gala, Christina Ricci reportedly left when she learned that she wasn't seated with her boyfriend and Speed Racer co-star, Kick Gurry; Jeff Zucker avoided Project Runway stealer, Harvey Weinstein, on the red carpet. [P6]

Rudy Giuliani shops for pants at TJ Maxx and his wife helps him! [P6]  read more »

Our intrepid political reporter Jason Horowitz is following Rudy Giuliani around Florida this week. On Rudy's press plane, the legendary actor Jon Voight (Midnight Cowboy, Deliverance), a supporter who is traveling with the presidential hopeful today, took a break from such topics as Franklin D. Roosevelt, the nature of the media and the normal guyness of Mr.  read more »

Could John McCain pull it off in New Hampshire once again? The newest numbers suggest he at least has a shot at it – which is more than anyone expected a few months ago.

Right now, Mitt Romney still leads the G.O.P. pack with a healthy 34 percent. He remains the clear favorite in the state, where he has invested heavily in T.V. ads and personal time and where he retains some extra goodwill among (some) Republican voters from his stint as Governor of neighboring Massachusetts. (He also owns a summer house on Lake Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro.)

But McCain is within striking distance, at 22 percent. More importantly, the new poll shows that, for the first time since the summer, he has broken free of the rest of the G.O.P. pack. He may now be positioned as the default non-Romney choice in the state.

(more after the break)  read more »

Rudy Giuliani can thank his lucky stars that, while he may be losing support elsewhere, he now has the underage conspiracy-theorist contingent securely in his corner. On a campaign stop in Exeter, New Hampshire, yesterday, the erstwhile New York City mayor and possible future president of 9/11 was asked by a young boy in his audience how he would react if evil aliens attack.

With his toothy grin, Mr. Giuliani apparently snuffed the child’s concerns without actually answering the question, saying:

“Of all things that can happen in this world, we’ll be prepared for that, yes we will. We’ll be prepared for anything that happens.”

Just moments ago, TMZ.com posted a link to a clip of the unearthly exchange.

A new Rasmussen poll has Hillary Clinton thumping Rudy Giuliani in New York, 58 to 33 percent. So does this throw cold water on the Giuliani campaign’s claims that their man is uniquely suited to compete on Democratic turf? Not really.

The size of Hillary’s lead is a little surprising, but it’s not exactly a revelation that New York, which lasted voted for a G.O.P. presidential candidate in 1984, is a lock for the Democrats next year.

A better test of Giuliani’s potential to pick off blue states is probably New Jersey, whose 15 electoral votes haven’t been seriously contested by Republicans since 1992. A Quinnipiac poll last month showed New Jerseyans favoring Rudy over Hillary, 47-44 percent. Compare that to the G.O.P.’s Garden State futility the past three elections – an 18-point win for Bill Clinton in 1996, a 17-point win for Al Gore in 2000, and a 7-point win for John Kerry in 2004.

On a separate note, Rasmussen has a baffling bit of analysis up on its web site, lecturing reporters for “missing what matters” in the G.O.P. race. Rasmussen’s basic claim: That the media overplayed the August 11 Iowa Republican straw poll, where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee were the top finishers:

Both Romney and Huckabee received a minor bounce in the polls for a few days. But, two weeks later, the national polls show that the Iowa event had virtually no impact. Romney remains mired in third place barely ahead of John McCain. Huckabee’s support continues to be measured in the mid-single digits.

I don’t understand Rasmussen’s point. Huckabee’s surprise second place finish was a major development in the campaign, since it opened the door to improved fundraising (a significant challenge for the cash-strapped candidate), increased credibility with party activists, and higher profile and more favorable media coverage, now that he has demonstrated some viability. No one, as far as I know, was under the impression that the actual news of his 8/11 performance would affect national polls. That’s not the point. The point is that 8/11 signaled that Huckabee has some strengths that help him make a splash four or five months from now.

The same is true of Romney, who has focused on the early states. He leads polls in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. He needed his straw poll win to maintain his credibility with the folks who have fueled his rise in those states. If January rolls around and Romney actually wins them, his national poll standing will take care of itself.

Today’s First Read from NBC News takes note of the glowing reviews Mike Huckabee has been winning in the key early primary state of South Carolina and points to a weekend article from that state’s top political writer, Lee Bandy of The (Columbia) State.

Of a recent Huckabee visit to York County, S.C., Bandy writes:

Huckabee wasn’t prepared for the raucous reception he got.

The York Republicans gave Huckabee a hero’s welcome. The applause and cheers were deafening, never seeming to end.

Buoyed by the response, Huckabee charmed his audience for the next 30 minutes with his jokes, down-home personality and resume.

Huckabee also let his listeners know he is a different kind of Republican, one who comes from humble beginnings — a working- class family. His interests and priorities are allied with working people, he said.

What makes this particularly interesting is that Mitt Romney, who is desperately trying to play the true conservative in the G.O.P. race, has so far faced a stubborn electorate in South Carolina. His act has worked perfectly in the three other early states – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, all of which he now leads in – but he lags in single digits in the Palmetto State.

Some have speculated that this is because of Romney’s Mormon faith, a tough sell in such a devoutly Christian state. Huckabee, by contrast, is a perfect cultural and religious match: a son of the South and an ordained Baptist minister. And, unlike the other candidates, he has a cheery and telegenic personality that matches Romney’s – and probably exceeds it, in that Huckabee seems more genuine.

Suddenly, it’s not so much of a stretch to paint a scenario in which Huckabee contends seriously for the G.O.P. nod. His second place showing in the Iowa straw poll earlier this month certified him as the darkhorse to watch there – and may have marginalized Sam Brownback, Huckabee’s chief rival for the hearts of that state’s Christian conservatives. Romney is now the favorite in Iowa, but a strong Huckabee showing there on caucus day could give him the “Big Mo” that the state is famous for producing. Huckabee seems like such a natural fit for South Carolina – and the other candidates are such awkward fits – that he’d probably be the front-runner there if he could get an Iowa bounce. So a scenario can be painted in which Huckabee is the media’s “winner” in two of the first three states.

Right now, Romney and Rudy Giuliani are the G.O.P. front-runners – Giuliani for his deep national support (positioning him well for the mega-primary of February 5) and Romney for his strong early state support. But as Fred Thompson dawdles, Huckabee may be emerging as the most likely to crash the front-runners’ party.

Marc Ambinder, who once wrote for the Hotline and who now pens a well-sourced, insider-ish blog about the 2008 campaign, has a fundraising appeal from the Giuliani campaign that will be distributed later today.

The pitch: The Democrats will ignore terrorists, take away your health insurance (assuming you have it, I guess), and give illegal immigrants free reign over our country – UNLESS Republicans nominate Rudy, “the only candidate who can beat the Democrats in November.”

Never mind the letter’s laughable hysteria (not to mention Rudy’s own vulnerabilities on immigration, as detailed by Jason Horowitz) – that’s par for the course for these solicitations.

What is interesting, though, is how much the Giuliani campaign is staking on the electability factor. The letter, written by Giuliani’s campaign manager, Michael DuHaime, singles out Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Florida and California as states in which the former mayor is uniquely positioned to compete in the fall. There are others he could have mentioned as well – like New Jersey and Connecticut.

DuHaime’s point is solid – there is no question that Giuliani’s 9/11 star power, and relatively moderate reputation, would potentially position him to overcome the electorate’s grave reservations about handing the White House to a Republican for a third term. And at the very least, he could force the Democrats to spend time and money in all of those states, giving the GOP more of a chance in battleground states.

But when has electability ever mattered in a G.O.P. presidential primary?

John McCain was running 20 points better than George W. Bush against Al Gore in March 2000 – but Republicans overwhelmingly anointed Bush anyway, which very nearly cost them the election. And four years before that, they tapped Bob Dole, ignoring the sunnier and more telegenic Lamar Alexander’s pleas that his campaign was as easy as “ABC – Alexander Beats Clinton.” Even in 1980, there were dire – although, as it turned out, wrong – warnings that nominating Ronald Reagan would be electoral suicide. Not that it mattered to anyone.

Maybe 2008 will be different, especially if Republicans wise up to how poisoned the political atmosphere now is for their party. After all, Democrats actually thought pragmatically (if incorrectly) when they nominated John Kerry in 2004 – will the threat of Hillary provoke a similarly sober response among Republicans?